The top ten securities companies see the future market | A shares are at the key long window, with a high probability of rising after the Spring Festival
2023-01-16
In the last trading week before the Spring Festival close, how will the market situation be interpreted? The reporter collected the views of 10 brokers, most of whom believed that the current market valuation was still at a historical low, and the repair of the market may not be over, and it is expected that the spring market will continue. At the same time, the market has a high probability of rising after the holiday, and it is still a good time point to increase positions. CITIC Securities said that A-shares were at the key long window of the year. On the one hand, high-frequency data verification and fundamental expectations formed positive feedback to strengthen investors' consensus on the increase of shares. At the same time, next, it is expected that domestic funds will also cover the position and gradually form the capital relay effect. After the concentrated inflow of foreign capital superimposed on the Spring Festival, the market has a greater probability of rising, and is still a good time point to increase positions. China Securities also believes that the market is expected to continue in the spring. In addition to the continuous inflow of foreign capital before the Spring Festival and the promotion of the traditional consumption and financial sectors, the market will also usher in positive factors such as the expectation of the two sessions and the improvement of the overseas environment after the Spring Festival. "Although the near Spring Festival does not rule out that the market will face certain short-term disturbances, the current market valuation is still at a historical low, and the profit in the fourth quarter of last year is weak or has been fully expected by the market, so the market repair may not be over." CICC further pointed out. In terms of allocation, the growth sector has become a promising direction for many institutions. CITIC Securities said that, from the perspective of market history, the varieties with the highest winning rate after the Spring Festival are concentrated in the GEM, with an average increase of more than 10% in January after the year, so investors can pay attention to the GEM with a more significant winning rate after the Spring Festival. In the medium term, CICC also recommends investors to grow. CITIC Securities: At present, it is still a good time point to increase the position. At present, the market has a high probability of rising after the holiday. The A-share market is at the key long window of the year. The high-frequency data verification and the fundamental expectation form a positive feedback to strengthen the investors' consensus on increasing the allocation. Next, it is expected that the pace will slow down after the rapid inflow of foreign capital, and the domestic capital will also cover the position, gradually forming the capital relay effect. Among them, the historical double-check shows that after the Spring Festival, the concentration of foreign capital inflows superimposed, the market has a greater probability of rising, and is still a good time point to increase positions. Specifically, first of all, the recent high-frequency data verification and the expected improvement of fundamentals have formed a positive feedback, and the medium-term recovery trend of fundamentals is highly clear, and various investors have formed a strong consensus on the medium-term allocation of A-shares. Secondly, on the one hand, the inflow of foreign capital covering positions has increased significantly, and has become the most important pricing force since the beginning of the year, and is expected to be one of the important sources of funds for the whole year. On the other hand, domestic institutions shifted their positions from balanced allocation to more growth, and domestic and foreign capital will gradually form a capital relay effect. Thirdly, the historical review shows that in the past 33 events in which foreign capital has flowed into more than 20 billion yuan, 20 A-shares rose in the following three months, and the average increase of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 8.8%. Since 2000, the probability of A-share rise in the month after the Spring Festival is 74%, with an average increase of 2.5%. Therefore, the above two kinds of events are superimposed at present, and the market has a high probability of rising after the holiday. In terms of allocation, it is still a good time to increase the position. It is recommended to focus on the varieties that are in the "depression" and have explosive power after the Spring Festival in the short term. Specifically, it is recommended to lay out low positions and high production
Edit：wangwenting Responsible editor：xiaomai
Source：china.cn
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