Five Chief Forecasters: The domestic price trend will continue to be moderate this year
2023-01-10
On January 12, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the CPI (consumer price index) and PPI (industrial producer ex-factory price index) data for December 2022. The reporter of Securities Daily interviewed five chief executives. Most of the chief executives predicted that in December 2022, CPI would rise slightly or slightly year on year, while the decline of PPI would narrow. Looking forward to 2023, driven by the recovery of consumption, the inflation level will continue to rise, and the CPI growth center may be higher than last year, but the growth trend may be moderate. The year-on-year growth rate of CPI may rise slightly. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, predicted that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in December 2022 will be around 1.8%, with a slight increase of 0.2% compared with the previous month. Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said that in terms of food, the most flexible pork and fresh vegetables went out of the opposite market. Influenced by the epidemic, the demand for pork prices weakened significantly. In the early stage, the behavior of selling under the ban turned to centralized selling, and the price of pork fell. The price of fresh vegetables rose ahead of schedule, and fresh vegetables and fruits rose significantly in the middle and late December. Food prices are expected to rise slightly in December 2022. "In terms of non-food, the price of refined oil has been continuously reduced since late November 2022, and it is expected that the price of energy products will fall significantly. In terms of the price of various services, including housing rent, tourism, entertainment, education, family services, etc., will be weak; in terms of consumer goods, it is expected that only the price of clothing and medicine will rise due to seasonal and epidemic demand respectively, and the fast consumption and durable consumption will be weak." Wen Bin said, on the whole, It is expected that the CPI in December 2022 will decline by 0.1% month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth rate will rise slightly to 1.8%. The CPI in the whole year of 2022 will rise by 2.0% year-on-year, basically in a reasonable range. Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities and director of research institute, said that the CPI is expected to be around 1.8% in December 2022. "In terms of CPI, the price of food items rose slightly in December 2022, adding to the seasonal rise of the price of non-food items at the end of the year, and the CPI rose slightly to around 1.9% year-on-year." The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly judged. Deng Haiqing, chief economist of AVIC Fund, believes that overseas inflation is still plagued by high inflation, and the inflation level in Europe and America is still at the high level in recent decades. Relatively speaking, China's inflation situation is generally moderate, which is inseparable from China's implementation of a prudent monetary policy and the absence of "flooding". In terms of PPI, Wen Bin predicted that the year-on-year decline of PPI in December 2022 would be significantly narrowed, and the price of international bulk commodities would rise and fall, among which the crude oil price would rebound slightly after the low price stabilized, the supply and demand situation of natural gas would be better than expected, leading to the price decline, and the price of major metals would rise slightly. Faced with the weakening of imported inflation pressure and insufficient demand, the price of domestic industrial products is generally weaker than that of the international market. "In terms of upstream energy, the price of refined oil has been continuously reduced, and the price of coal has continued to weaken, but the price of natural gas has rebounded, and the spot price of metals has risen as a whole; in the middle and downstream areas, the prices of building materials and chemical products have declined, and the prices of pigs and feed have fallen sharply." Wen Bin said that in December 2022
Edit：wangwenting Responsible editor：xiaomai
Source：china.cn
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