Over the past two months, the RMB has performed strongly. The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar first recovered 6.9 yuan in the first year of 2023, and then rose to 6.8 yuan on January 9, showing a new look. Industry insiders said that factors such as the decline of the US dollar index, the inflow of foreign capital and the increase of seasonal foreign exchange settlement may all play an impact behind the rapid appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the near future, but the improvement of China's economic expectations still constitutes the most fundamental force. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will continue to follow a two-way fluctuation trend and gradually approach a long-term reasonable range after a reasonable repair. New trend: rapid appreciation "I often exchange foreign exchange, mainly for overseas business trips, and the exchange amount is generally determined according to the specific needs." Tan Jianing, who works in a foreign company, told the China Securities News that the RMB exchange rate has a good trend recently. Although there is no business trip arrangement for the time being, he also plans to exchange some US dollars for reserve. Recently, the breakneck appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is fully reflected in the following data. Looking at the rate of appreciation, on the second trading day of 2023, the closing price of the onshore RMB against the US dollar rose to 6.9 yuan; Just a few trading days later, on January 9, the onshore exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar recovered another 6.8 yuan. Looking at the appreciation range, as of 16:30 on January 9, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has risen by 1802 basis points since the beginning of the year, and the offshore RMB has also risen by more than 1400 basis points. Looking at the highest touch point, as of 17:40 on January 9, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was up to 6.7592 yuan, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was up to 6.7664 yuan, which has reached or is close to the upper limit of the 2023 RMB exchange rate forecast range of many experts. In the whole year of 2022, the trend of RMB exchange rate fluctuated, and the devaluation journey started after hitting the high point of 6.3048 yuan in the early stage. In November 2022, the RMB exchange rate began to rebound. As of January 8, 2023, the exchange rate of onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar has increased by more than 6%. New changes: The economy is improving. The RMB exchange rate is rising significantly. What are the driving factors? Experts analyzed that the weakening trend of the US dollar index, the recovery of China's economy, the increase of foreign capital inflows and the increased willingness to settle and sell foreign exchange seasonally are the main reasons for the rapid appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in this round. In terms of the trend of the US dollar, the US dollar index has continued to fall in the near future due to factors such as the weakening of the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. "The purchasing managers' index of manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in the United States continues to decline, and the risk of a hard landing of the economy increases. The hourly wage in the United States has cooled significantly, and the market believes that the inflation pressure has decreased, leading to the continued decline of the dollar index." Zhang Jingjing, chief macro analyst of China Merchants Securities, said. Wind data shows that the US dollar index has fallen by more than 6% since November 2022. As of 16:30 on January 9, the US dollar index fell below 104, and fell more than 0.3% during the day. From the perspective of China's economic fundamentals, thanks to the optimization of the epidemic prevention policy and the remarkable effect of the stable growth policy, China's economic stability and the improvement of social expectations may constitute an important reason for the recent rebound of the RMB exchange rate. Li Liuyang, a foreign exchange expert of CICC, said that the rapid recovery of economic activities gave China's assets
Edit：wangwenting Responsible editor：xiaomai
Source：china.cn
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