The year 2022 is about to turn over: Looking back on this year, major economies around the world are generally facing the trouble of high inflation, and the big moves to raise interest rates have been repeated. By the end of the year, this round of high-intensity interest rate increases had just come to an end. A new page awaits in 2023: Looking forward to the new year, the trend of slowing inflation pressure has already appeared, and the market is expected to witness the suspension of interest rate increase by the global central bank in the first half of the year, but the global economic recovery is difficult to sustain, or it will enter the second half of "stagflation". There are investment opportunities between market changes. "The current market situation is a time when investors can seize investment opportunities." Many international institutions believe that the focus of global GDP will gradually shift to Asia and China in the coming decades. At the same time, with a series of stable growth policies converging, the global market's confidence and risk appetite in China's capital market have significantly improved. The global economic center of gravity will be more inclined to Asia in 2022 when inflation slows down. A rare global interest rate hike will hit and the market will be severely shocked. Now, with the tide receding, what will the global economic environment look like? In the latest outlook report, the IMF predicted that the global economic growth will remain at 3.2% in 2022, and will decelerate to 2.7% in 2023. About one-third of the world's economies will shrink. "The economic growth environment in 2023 is still challenging. At present, it is one of the fastest interest rate raising cycles ever recorded by the Federal Reserve, and there is a great possibility of economic recession in the United States. Under the impact of energy prices, Europe will fall into economic recession." The wealth management team of Standard Chartered Bank believes that Europe and the United States are expected to fall into recession in 2023, and China is expected to recover. The inflation that has plagued major economies for a long time may slow down, which is also expected to become a bright spot of the global economy in 2023. "The economic slowdown will help reduce inflation significantly, but inflation will not fall back to 2%." The team said that global inflation is expected to slow down, and the Federal Reserve may suspend interest rate hikes in the first half of 2023, and then cut interest rates in the second half. As far as specific economies are concerned, the global economic center of gravity will move more "eastward". According to the latest research report of Goldman Sachs, although the real GDP growth of developed economies and emerging economies will slow down, relatively speaking, the growth of emerging markets continues to exceed that of developed markets. "The continuous reduction of the income gap with developed economies means that the proportion of emerging markets in global GDP will continue to rise gradually, and the global income distribution will turn to this growing 'middle-income' economic group." Goldman Sachs predicts that the focus of global GDP will gradually shift to Asia in the next 30 years. The stable growth policy brings together the strength. The market environment in which RMB assets become the key target of overseas funds is changing rapidly, and the preference of international institutions for asset categories is also changing subtly. Increasing the weight of the Asian market has become the tacit choice of many international institutions. Mike Shao, chief investment director of Kingsoft Asia (excluding Japan), said that Asian economic growth would return to normal in 2023. The unique economic situation in Asia (excluding Japan) and attractive stock valuation can provide good diversified investment opportunities for global investors. "More broadly, the dollar shift will eventually support emerging market assets, including
Edit：He Chuanning Responsible editor：Su Suiyue
Source：Shanghai Securities News
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