The GDP growth rate is expected to be above 5%. The "troika" has sufficient power
2022-12-23
The recently held Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that the foundation of China's economic recovery is not yet solid, the triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening are still large, and the external environment is volatile, which has deepened the impact on China's economy. However, it should be noted that China's economy is resilient, has great potential and is full of vitality. The effects of various policies continue to emerge, and economic operation is expected to pick up in the next year. We should have firm confidence in doing economic work well. What is the expectation of China's economic situation in 2023? What are the core growth points? How can China's foreign trade continue to gain "new momentum" against the background of increasing downside risks of the global economy? On December 22, the reporter of Securities Daily interviewed the five chief economists. They generally believe that China's economy will improve as a whole in 2023, GDP growth is expected to be above 5%, and consumption, investment and export have strong growth resilience. Wen Bin, the chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, believes that the economic growth rate in 2023 will be above 5%. It is expected that the GDP growth rate in 2023 will be about 5.5%, basically showing a trend of low in the first place and high in the second. Deng Haiqing, chief economist of AVIC Capital, said that 2023 will be the turning point of domestic and foreign demand, and domestic demand will take over from foreign demand and trigger the backbone of China's economic recovery. At the same time, consumption is expected to recover rapidly after the optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures. Driven by policies, the real estate industry is expected to stabilize, the growth rate of investment and sales is expected to rebound, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment will remain high. In addition, the sources of economic growth are rich, the high-tech industry will maintain a high profile, and the green dual carbon field will see sustained growth. "Seen from the trend, the epidemic situation will still cause some disturbance to the economy at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, but the economic operation trend is upward, and the economy will have a relatively significant year-on-year and month on month recovery in the second quarter of next year." The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly judged. Chen Li, chief economist of Sichuan Finance Securities and director of the research institute, believes that in the context of the optimization of current epidemic prevention and control measures and the continuous effectiveness of policies related to expanding domestic demand, future policies will continue to escort the expansion of enterprise vitality and creativity, increase industrial policy support, expand residents' income through multiple channels, improve residents' consumption base and willingness, and increase residents' income generation. The Central Economic Work Conference put forward that "we should give priority to the recovery and expansion of consumption", "we should effectively drive the investment of the whole society through government investment and policy incentives, speed up the implementation of the" Fourteenth Five Year Plan "major projects, and strengthen inter regional infrastructure connectivity". Experts interviewed also believe that the continuous release of consumption and investment potential will provide the core power for economic growth in 2023. Li Zhan, chief economist of China Merchants Fund Research Department, said that consumption will contribute the most to economic growth next year, followed by investment, which will continue to play a role as a ballast. According to Wen Bin's analysis, next year's consumption growth will benefit from three favorable factors. First, the consumption scenario will be gradually restored. With the gradual optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, offline contact and aggregation consumption will be gradually restored; Second, the growth of residents' income picked up, the impact of the epidemic on employment gradually faded, residents' income grew steadily, and their consumption capacity would be improved accordingly; three
Edit：wangwenting Responsible editor：xiaomai
Source：china.cn
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