On November 9, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the national consumer price index (CPI) in October. Influenced by the drop in vegetable prices and the base number of last year, many institutions expect that the CPI will rise or fall in October on a year-on-year basis. In October, CPI rose 2.8% year on year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous month. How will CPI increase in October? According to the statistics of Flush iFinD, the average forecast value of 17 institutions for year-on-year CPI growth in October is 2.38%. If the above average forecast value is fulfilled, the year-on-year increase of CPI in October will fall back. Chi Guangsheng, an analyst at Essence Securities, believes that in the CPI measurement, the increase in pork price in October expanded, and the price of oil and eggs rose slightly month on month, which played a positive role in the CPI; The prices of vegetables and fresh fruits both weakened, which played a negative role in the month on month CPI. To sum up, the year-on-year increase of CPI in October may fall back to around 2.4% from the previous 2.8%. "Since October, the prices of vegetables and fruits have declined, while the prices of pork have increased compared with last month. Considering the slight increase in the base in the same period last year, we expect the CPI to decline to 2.2% year-on-year or lower in October." Chen Xing, an analyst with Zhongtai Securities, said. What is the trend of CPI in the later period? Pork price is an important factor affecting CPI fluctuation. According to the monitoring of 500 county fairs and collection points by the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the first week of November, the average price of live pigs nationwide was 26.87 yuan/kg, down 2.9% from the previous week and up 67.1% year on year; The average price of pork nationwide was 41.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week, with a year-on-year increase of 60.5%. Meng Weixiao, an analyst of Zheshang Securities, believes that in November, the industry will usher in the first climax of the second fattening selling, and the spot price of live pigs may be significantly reduced. After December, the consumption demand for traditional cured, sausage and other pork has become increasingly strong. The historical data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that the operating rate of slaughter enterprises will increase significantly in December, and the pig price is expected to rise again. "Although the pig cycle is at the stage of price rise, food prices have risen higher, but the non food prices, especially the core CPI, remain at a low level on a year-on-year basis, which indicates that the current domestic price level is generally stable." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said. Wang Qing believes that September is likely to be the highest year-on-year increase in CPI this year, and the price level in the fourth quarter will remain below the control target of about 3.0%. (Liu Xinshe)
Edit：Yi Bing Responsible editor：Wei Li Bin
Source：China News
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