New loans in September exceeded expectations, and it is critical to enhance investment confidence
2022-10-14
The People's Bank of China recently released financial statistics for the first three quarters, showing that RMB loans increased by 18.08 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 1.36 trillion yuan over the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans increased by 2.47 trillion yuan in September, an increase of 810.8 billion yuan year-on-year. This is a signal worthy of attention, indicating that the demand for credit is beginning to pick up, the investment confidence of enterprises and residents is beginning to recover, and the momentum of economic recovery will gradually increase, thus laying a solid foundation for stable growth, stable employment, stable people's livelihood, and stable expectations. Due to the comprehensive influence of internal and external factors, there have been relatively big problems in the operation of enterprises since this year, especially in the second quarter, the economic growth slowed down significantly due to the impact of the epidemic. Therefore, it is urgent to boost the economy, confidence and expectation by expanding investment, activating consumption and releasing demand. From the perspective of investment confidence of enterprises, in the first three quarters, loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 14.48 trillion yuan, including 3.28 trillion yuan for short-term loans, 8.65 trillion yuan for medium and long-term loans, and 2.5 trillion yuan for bill financing. In particular, medium - and long-term loans can increase by 8.65 trillion yuan, which fully shows that the confidence of enterprise development is improving, the expectation of the future is increasing, and the enthusiasm for investment is growing. Once the development momentum of enterprises is effectively released, it will play a significant role in economic growth, and the efficiency of stabilizing economic growth will also be greatly improved. Among them, entrepreneurs can be confident in the development prospect and the market prospect of the enterprise, so they can find a foothold and breakthrough point in the complex external environment and the contradiction between supply and demand, which will help overcome the current difficulties and overcome them as soon as possible. At present, what enterprises need most is policy support and environmental nourishment. They need the government, departments, public service institutions, etc. to give enterprises the maximum support within the scope of policies and laws. In particular, the support in work efficiency, service level, business environment and other aspects can enable entrepreneurs to further open their hands, follow market trends and tap new potential of the industry. From the perspective of residents' investment confidence, in the first three quarters, household loans increased by 3.41 trillion yuan, including 1.09 trillion yuan in short-term loans and 2.32 trillion yuan in medium and long-term loans. The increase of medium - and long-term loans from households shows that the enthusiasm of residents to buy houses has also begun to recover, and the wait-and-see mood is weakening, which undoubtedly has a positive effect on the real estate market to get out of the downturn, and the rigid housing demand of residents will be better met. The medium and long-term loans of residents are closely related to the mortgage loans for house purchase, which can be used as an important indicator to observe the sales of commercial houses. From a qualitative point of view, the trend of the year-on-year data of residents' medium and long-term loans and commercial housing sales shows a clear correlation. From a quantitative point of view, the year-on-year data of residents' medium and long-term loans and the sales of commercial housing and commercial housing have a high correlation coefficient. The improvement of residents' medium and long-term loans confirmed the restoration of real estate sales in September. To some extent, this shows that residents' enthusiasm for buying houses has been released, and it also shows that the real estate control measures have achieved results. Of course, it is obviously not enough to rely solely on residents' purchase of houses to expand market demand and activate consumption. To stimulate residents' entrepreneurial desire and investment enthusiasm
Edit：Yi Bing Responsible editor：Wei Li Bin
Source：Beijing Youth Daily
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