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Economy

Cohesion, steady growth, sufficient space for monetary policy regulation

2022-09-14   

The latest price data and financial data have created good conditions and opened up space for monetary policy regulation. The insiders believe that there is still much room for monetary policy regulation, with the focus on stable growth, stable employment and credit extension. At present, China is rich in monetary policy tools, which can not only consolidate the recovery of the economy, but also be able to cope with various risks and challenges, creating conditions for stabilizing the macroeconomic market. Policy space opening from the perspective of price operation, the low operating price level provides space for monetary policy regulation. The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in August, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.5% year on year, 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, lower than the annual price control target of about 3%. "Relatively low prices are conducive to opening up the regulatory space of monetary policy and releasing the effectiveness of stable growth policies." Said Li Qilin, chief economist of Hongta securities. Ruan Jianhong, Director of the Investigation and Statistics Department of the People's Bank of China and spokesman of the People's Bank of China, said recently that since the outbreak of New Coronary Pneumonia, China has implemented normal monetary policy without excessive stimulus, leaving room for subsequent monetary policy regulation. At present, the rise in consumer prices is relatively moderate, which also creates good conditions for monetary policy regulation. Judging from the financial data, there is still much room for monetary policy. According to the data of the central bank, the balance of broad money (M2) at the end of August was 259.51 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.2% year-on-year. The growth rate was 0.2 and 4 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period last year. "The M2 growth rate is still operating at a high level, reflecting the domestic proactive fiscal policy and relatively loose monetary policy. The increase in basic money supply has driven the increase in deposits of residents and enterprises." Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher in the financial market department of Everbright Bank, said that the year-on-year growth of M2 and the stock of social financing scale basically matched the year-on-year growth of nominal GDP, indicating that the domestic money supply was in a reasonable range and continued to provide strong support for the recovery of the real economy. Wang Qing, chief Macro Analyst of Oriental Jincheng, believes that monetary policy will continue to increase in boosting credit demand in the later period, and there is more room for monetary policy tools. Broad credit is the core "the core of monetary policy is still broad credit." Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, believes that credit in manufacturing loans, carbon reduction loans, infrastructure loans and mortgage loans is expected to increase. Mingming, the chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that the decline of the Medium term Loan Facility (MLF) interest rate had led to the decline of the loan market quoted rate (LPR), opening a new round of credit easing. The symposium on the analysis of the monetary and credit situation held by the People's Bank of China in late August emphasized that major financial institutions, especially large state-owned banks, should strengthen macro thinking, give full play to the leading and supporting role, and maintain the stability of the growth of total loans. Wang Qing predicted that in the later period, the regulators would strengthen the assessment of banks, guide financial institutions to increase the loan supply to the real economy, fully tap the potential of various structural monetary policy tools, accelerate the supply of related loans, and promote the growth of total credit. In the future, the regulatory authorities will promote the effective transmission of "easy money" to "easy credit", focus on guiding the LPR quotation down, and reduce the financing costs of enterprises and residents. In Wang Qing's opinion, along with

Edit:Wei Li Bin Responsible editor:Yin Bing

Source:China Securities Journal

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