Affected by multiple factors, the RMB exchange rate has shown a large fluctuation trend recently. However, the current exchange rate index of RMB against a basket of currencies is still above 100, showing strong resilience and stability compared with the major non US dollar currencies in the world. Insiders said that the future trend of RMB exchange rate will continue to be affected by multiple internal and external factors. Two way fluctuations are normal, but it will remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. In addition, several foreign-funded institutions also said recently that China's long-term economic development prospects are good, the impact of short-term exchange rate fluctuations is limited, and China's assets are still attractive to foreign capital. On August 30, the people's Bank of China authorized the China foreign exchange trading center to announce that the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.8802, 104 basis points lower than the previous trading day. On that day, the spot closing price of RMB against the US dollar was 6.8980. The data shows that since August 12, the US dollar index has changed from down to up, rising from about 105 to about 109 at present, up 4% to a new high in nearly 20 years. "At present, the global foreign exchange market shows a pattern of strong US dollar and weak non US dollar currencies. As a non US dollar currency, RMB has also been affected to a certain extent." Said Zhao Qingming, vice president of the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute. Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, believes that the central bank has recently lowered the medium-term lending facility and the loan market quotation rate (LPR) interest rate. The trend of monetary policy between China and the United States has continued to diverge, and has also brought some disturbances to short-term cross-border capital flows and exchange rates. However, it is worth noting that the current exchange rate index of RMB against a basket of currencies is still above 100. Compared with the major non US dollar currencies in the world, the RMB exchange rate also shows strong resilience and stability. According to the data, the exchange rates of euro, Japanese yen and sterling against the US dollar fell by 3.84%, 4.37% and 4.43% respectively in the same period. The change of RMB against the US dollar by about 2% is not only smaller than the increase of the US dollar index, but also smaller than the decline of major non US dollar currencies such as the euro. "China's economy has stabilized and recovered, the main economic indicators have improved, the industrial chain and supply chain have remained stable, and will continue to play a fundamental role in supporting the RMB exchange rate." Wang Chunying, deputy director of the State Administration of foreign exchange, said a few days ago that China's foreign trade and foreign capital development are relatively resilient, and the inflow of funds from the real economy helps to basically balance the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market. Looking forward to the medium - and long-term trend of RMB, people in the industry generally believe that the subsequent trend of RMB exchange rate will continue to be affected by multiple internal and external factors. Two way fluctuations are normal, but it will remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. A series of measures to stabilize the economy continue to be implemented and effective. Together with the introduction of new follow-up measures, it will consolidate the good trend of economic recovery and strengthen the fundamental support of the RMB exchange rate. Guan Tao, global chief economist of BOC securities, said that under the "five protection" of basic balance of payments surplus, private secondary foreign reserves, macro prudential measures, capital foreign exchange management and foreign exchange reserve intervention, China has the confidence, conditions and ability to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher of the financial market department of Everbright Bank, also believes that the medium - and long-term RMB exchange rate should eventually return to the base
Edit：Wei Li Bin Responsible editor：Yin Bing
Source：Economic Information Daily
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