On August 15, WTI crude oil price fell by more than 5%. Since falling below $90 in early August, the WTI crude oil price has been fluctuating around $90 in the past few days. After the crisis in Ukraine, the oil price once soared, and the WTI crude oil price exceeded 130 US dollars / barrel. After maintaining a three-month high fluctuation, the oil price has fluctuated downward since mid June, falling to the level before the Ukraine crisis. Experts believe that the current round of oil price decline is dominated by economic and financial factors, and the fear of oil supply shortage has been fully digested. Looking forward to the future, if there are no new geopolitical variables, the oil price may remain in the downward range. Economic and financial factors dominate the current round of oil price decline. "From a broad perspective, the factors affecting oil price mainly include economy, finance and geopolitics. The current oil price decline is dominated by economic and financial factors." Said Dong Xiucheng, executive director of the International Business Strategy Research Institute of the University of international business and economics. "The rise of the Federal Reserve's interest rate has led to the appreciation of the US dollar, and the decline of commodity prices denominated in US dollars is one of the financial factors for the decline of oil prices. In addition, in the oil financial derivatives market, international financial institutions have shown a tendency of being both bullish and bearish, and the strength of being bearish is stronger at present." Dong Xiucheng said. Since the beginning of this year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 225 basis points, and the US dollar index has been rising all the way. It once exceeded 109 in mid July. "The high oil price in the early stage was mainly affected by the crisis in Ukraine. The sanctions adopted by Europe and the United States against Russian oil made the market worried about the gap in Russian oil supply and whether the new supply could fill the gap." Guo Haitao, director of the Institute of energy economics and finance of China University of Petroleum (Beijing), said that at that time, the global economic situation showed a post epidemic recovery trend, and the outside world expected strong oil demand. According to the monthly report of the International Energy Agency, Russia's crude oil supply is higher than expected, and its oil products flow to Asian countries, alleviating the upstream losses caused by European and American sanctions. Compared with that before the crisis in Ukraine, Russia's crude oil production capacity in July only decreased by 310000 barrels / day, and its overall export volume decreased by 580000 barrels / day. In July, the global oil supply reached the highest level since the outbreak of the epidemic, adding to the measures of various countries to increase production. Dong Xiucheng said that from the perspective of geopolitics, the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia in the energy field are actually relatively loose. The European Union is under great pressure, and the United States does not want the oil price to be too high. Russian oil flows to Europe and the United States through various means to evade sanctions. "At present, the market is not too worried about the supply shortage caused by geopolitics and energy games." Dong Xiucheng said. Many factors led to the deviation of the oil and gas price trend. However, while the oil price fell from the high level, the natural gas price rose all the way. On August 11, the TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price in recent months reached a new high. Russia's oil and natural gas exports are both subject to sanctions. Why are the price trends of the two different? Analysts said that this is related to the basic economic characteristics of oil and gas. The oil market operates perfectly and the transportation mode is flexible. Therefore, there are many means to evade sanctions and supplement supply, and the impact of sanctions on Russian oil is small. In contrast to the natural gas market, sanctions on Russian natural gas have created a supply gap. "Natural gas supply depends on pipeline transportation and liquefaction days
Edit：Luoyu Responsible editor：Jiajia
Source：ShangHai Securities News
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