As of July this year, China's total import and export value has been growing for 26 consecutive months, and the trade scale has reached the highest level in the same period in history. In July, exports increased by 23.9% year-on-year, and the trade surplus reached 682.69 billion yuan. The export growth rate and trade balance in a single month again exceeded the market expectations. Why does China's foreign trade maintain sufficient development resilience? What are the new features of the foreign trade structure in the first half of the year? Will the high economy continue in the future? With these questions, the Securities Times reporter interviewed many experts, scholars and market participants. The performance of foreign trade under the influence of multiple factors exceeded expectations. At the end of last year, the State Council made a series of arrangements around the cross cycle adjustment of foreign trade. Relevant departments also continued to make efforts to improve the level of trade facilitation and promote the development of new forms of foreign trade, so as to keep the operation of foreign trade within a reasonable range. As of July, China's import and export had delivered an unexpected answer. According to customs statistics, in the first seven months, China's total import and export value was 23.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.4% over the same period last year. In July, the total import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.6%. Among them, exports were 2.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 23.9%; Imports were 1.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.4%; The trade surplus was 682.69 billion yuan, an increase of 90.9%. This is a result achieved on the basis of last year's high base. Especially considering the severe impact of repeated epidemics on the domestic and foreign trade towns in the second quarter, the performance of foreign trade exceeded expectations. Zhang Jianping, director of the regional economic research center of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told the securities times that the rapid growth of exports was related to the sustained development of the policy of stabilizing foreign trade since the end of last year. Although China's foreign trade import and export were repeatedly impacted by the epidemic in the second quarter, when the epidemic was effectively controlled and the blocking points in the logistics and transportation links were quickly cleared, foreign trade recovered rapidly. "There is also a very important external reason." Zhang Jianping said that at present, the world is experiencing the great impact of inflation and the Ukraine crisis, which has supported exports from the market demand. Cui Xiaomin, deputy director of the global macroeconomic research office of the Institute of world economics and politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that under the influence of the Ukrainian crisis and the Western sanctions against Russia, Europe's supply capacity was significantly weakened, and the impact of the energy crisis and the transformation of the energy structure was superimposed. Related products such as metal products, vehicles and their parts, especially electric vehicles, increased the import demand for China. In addition, against the background of high inflation overseas, domestic prices are relatively stable, which also supports China's export competitiveness to a certain extent. China's foreign trade presents new characteristics since the beginning of this year, the characteristics of China's trade structure with different regions and countries have changed. Zhang Yu, assistant director of Huachuang Securities Research Institute and chief Macro Analyst, told reporters that since 2021, China's export growth has been more significantly driven by developed economies such as the United States and Europe. However, as the economic growth of the United States and Europe slows down, China's export to the United States and Europe and other developed economies has slowed down this year. While China's exports to emerging market economies such as ASEAN and India have significantly increased. The structure of China's export products to emerging market countries, Europe and America and other countries has also changed. According to the statistics of Huachuang securities, since the beginning of this year, China's exports to the United States
Edit：Wei Li Bin Responsible editor：Yin Bing
Source：Securities Times
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