After experiencing a wave of "four consecutive rises" recently, is the oil price finally coming down? At 24:00 on June 28, a new round of product oil price adjustment window will be opened. The agency predicts that the current round of product oil price will show a "sharp decline", ushering in the second reduction in the year. As of 14:00 on June 27, Beijing time, Brent crude oil futures in August had been quoted at US $113.23 per barrel. During this pricing cycle, the international crude oil futures showed a downward trend of high volatility. Luomeijuan, a refined oil analyst at jinlianchuang, said that recently, investors are still worried that the Fed's interest rate hike may plunge the US economy into recession, thereby curbing the demand for fuel. In addition, the US government's attempt to combat high oil prices by reducing taxes and increasing production also increased the downward pressure on crude oil futures, so the international crude oil showed a high downward trend. However, some oil producing countries were difficult to increase production. The recovery rate of OPEC production was always lower than the planned target, and investors' concerns about the shortage of oil resources remained unabated. Affected by the fluctuation and decline of international crude oil prices, according to institutional estimates, as of the ninth working day of June 27, the average price of crude oil varieties referred to by domestic oil prices was $113.11/barrel, with a change rate of -5.49%. It is estimated that domestic gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 330 yuan per ton, equivalent to 0.26 yuan per liter of No. 92 gasoline and 0.28 yuan per liter of diesel. After the current round of oil price adjustment, No. 95 gasoline in some parts of the country is expected to leave the "10 Yuan era" for the time being, and the price per liter will fall below 10 yuan. For consumers, this round of refined oil price adjustment may be regarded as short-term "good news". Since 2022, domestic refined oil has shown a pattern of "ten rises and one fall" in the year, with a cumulative increase of 2720 yuan per ton of gasoline and 2620 yuan per ton of diesel. Equivalent to gasoline rising by about 2.14 yuan per liter and diesel rising by about 2.24 yuan per liter. An ordinary private car with a 50L fuel tank will cost about 107 yuan more to fill up than at the end of last year. Luomeijuan said that with the hot weather, the use frequency of vehicle air conditioners has increased, the gasoline consumption has increased, and the demand is still supported. As the summer vacation approaches, the travel radius of residents increases, and the terminal consumption is still supported. "There is no obvious trend signal in the crude oil market in the short term, so maintaining a wide range of shocks is still the mainstream trend." Xi Jiarui, crude oil analyst at jinlianchuang, believes that the impact of market news on oil prices is temporary, and the final trend of crude oil prices will still return to the impact of fundamentals. All parties in the market still have different opinions on the future of crude oil. Bulls believe that the oil price will hit the high of $150 / barrel, while bears believe that crude oil has turned into a bearish cycle. (Xinhua News Agency)
Edit：He Chuanning Responsible editor：Su Suiyue
Source：Ecns.cn
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