Cultivate the "golden eye" and build the first line of defense for meteorological disaster prevention and reduction
2022-05-20
By 2025, the key and core technologies of Meteorology will be self controlled, the innovation, service, business and management system of modern meteorological science and technology will be more perfect, the ability of accurate monitoring, prediction and service will be continuously improved, and the service supply capacity and equalization level will be significantly improved... The outline for high-quality development of Meteorology (2022-2035) (hereinafter referred to as the outline) issued by the State Council recently focuses on accelerating the high-quality development of meteorology, Clear the guiding ideology and development objectives, and make systematic deployment for the main tasks. "The outline systematically designs and plans the high-quality development path of meteorological undertakings in depth, breadth and foresight. It is an exciting and encouraging blueprint for the development of meteorological undertakings in the new era." On May 19, Shen Xueshun, deputy director of the earth system numerical prediction center of the China Meteorological Administration, said in an interview with the science and technology daily. Also excited was Zhang Peng, deputy director of the National Satellite Meteorological Center. In his view, the publication of the outline in the name of the State Council fully shows the importance of meteorological forecast guarantee in building a new development pattern. In particular, it puts forward specific measures and clear requirements for the development of Fengyun meteorological satellites, the construction of meteorological scientific and technological talents, meteorological services and national and local economic construction, which makes people full of confidence and expectation for the future of meteorological undertakings. The more the three-dimensional monitoring network is woven, the more precise it is The outline points out that we should accelerate the modernization of meteorology, strive to build a modern meteorological system with leading science and technology, accurate monitoring, accurate forecasting, fine service and people's satisfaction, and give full play to the role of meteorology as the first line of defense for disaster prevention and mitigation. In the flood season of 2021, the paths of several typhoons are complicated and confusing. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall hit Henan, Shanxi and other places, and short-term strong convection and strong wind "disturb" from time to time... These can not escape the "golden eyes" of the heaven, earth and air integrated monitoring network composed of Fengyun satellite, weather radar, ground and ocean automatic observation stations. In the distant space, Fengyun series satellites have achieved a leap from following and running to part of the leader, becoming a "people star" who knows the cold and hot, a "spirit star" for independent innovation, and a "China Star" serving the world. On July 5, 2021, after the launch of FengYun-3 e satellite and networking with C and D satellites, China became the only country with the networking observation ability of meteorological satellites in three orbits at the same time, filling the gap of global space-based meteorological observation system. On the vast land, there are more than 70000 meteorological observation stations in China. Among them, 2423 national surface meteorological observation stations have realized observation automation, the observation frequency is about 4 to 8 times higher than that of manual, and the amount of data is more than 5 times higher; In the air, more than 200 radars, more than 100 sounding stations and large UAVs form a cooperative observation "formation", looking down at the earth from a high-altitude perspective to closely monitor the development and change of the weather. By 2021, the detection performance of China's weather radar has reached the world advanced level, the data availability rate has reached 96%, and the effectiveness of data transmission has been improved from 8 minutes to 50 seconds. "Monitoring is the basis of forecasting. Accurate reporting is the vitality of meteorological monitoring, forecasting and early warning. With high accuracy of weather forecasting, disaster prevention and reduction can be targeted." Zhuang Guotai, Secretary of the Party group and director of the China Meteorological Administration, said. The core technology should be independent and controllable Strengthen basic meteorological capacity-building, optimize the supply of meteorological services for people's good life, and build a high-level meteorological talent team... The outline deploys the main tasks from seven aspects. Shen Xueshun has been engaged in numerical prediction for a long time. What makes him feel the most is the first one to enhance the independent innovation ability of meteorological science and technology. Accelerate the tackling of key core technologies, strengthen the construction of meteorological science and technology innovation platform, and improve the system and mechanism of meteorological science and technology innovation. As the core technology in the development of modern meteorology, numerical prediction can be called the "chip" in the field of meteorology. "The focus of monitoring precision is to serve numerical prediction. Accurate prediction and fine service mainly depend on numerical prediction." Shen Xueshun said. From the early introduction of foreign technology, to independent research and development and mastery of core science and technology, and then to the development of the next generation model with the earth system model as the goal, China's numerical prediction business has gone through more than 40 years, realizing the leap forward development from "0" to "1" and then to "excellence". Today, the seamless intelligent weather forecast business system with the global assimilation forecast system of China Meteorological Administration as the core has realized the leap from station and falling area forecast to digital grid forecast. The strong convective weather early warning time is advanced to 40 minutes, the accuracy of rainstorm early warning reaches 90%, and the 24-hour error of typhoon path forecast is reduced to 77 km. The global climate system model ranks among the top in the world. In the international sub seasonal to seasonal climate prediction plan (S2S), the sub seasonal seasonal interannual scale integrated climate model prediction business system of China Meteorological Administration has joined the international comparison. Among them, the prediction skills of tropical intraseasonal oscillation (MJO) have exceeded 20 days, which is close to the world advanced level. At present, the resolution of China's global climate model has reached 45 kilometers and the resolution of regional climate model has reached 10-30 kilometers. "It is gratifying that we have achieved self-control in the whole chain technology of numerical weather forecasting. Facing the new requirements of high-quality development and numerical forecasting of the earth system, we will redouble our efforts to provide strong support for building the first line of defense for meteorological disaster prevention and reduction and ensuring life safety, production development, affluent life and good ecology." Shen Xueshun said. (Xinhua News Agency)
Edit：Huang Huiqun Responsible editor：Huang Tianxin
Source：Science and Technology Daily
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