At 24:00 today (16th), a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil will open. The comprehensive agency predicts that the current round of refined oil prices will rise, or for the eighth time this year. In this round of pricing cycle, WTI fell below $100. However, with the release of the CPI and PPI data of the United States in April, the inflationary pressure at the high point in recent 40 years has put pressure on US stocks one after another, superimposed on the continuous impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the international crude oil has soared continuously. As of the early morning of the 14th Beijing time (Saturday), WTI June crude oil futures closed up 4.11% to US $110.49/barrel; Brent July crude oil futures closed up 3.82% to $111.55 / barrel. In terms of inventory data, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude oil inventory increased by 8.487 million barrels in the week to May 6, the largest increase since the week of April 8, 2022. It is expected to decrease by 457000 barrels, and the previous value increased by 1.303 million barrels; The EIA strategic oil reserve inventory of the United States decreased by 6.991 million barrels in the week to May 6. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently lowered the growth expectation of global oil demand in the second quarter in its monthly oil report. IEA predicts that against the background of slowing economic recovery and rising oil prices, the growth of global oil demand is expected to slow from 4.4 million barrels per day in the first quarter to 1.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter. The price of gasoline has been raised by 1585 yuan this year, and the price of finished oil has risen by 1645 yuan this year. Among the seven price increases that have been made, the biggest one is the adjustment made on March 17, including an increase of 750 yuan per ton for gasoline and 720 yuan per ton for diesel. If this round of adjustment is implemented, it will be the eighth increase in the year. According to the calculation of Zhongyu information, on the ninth working day of this round, Zhongyu crude oil was valued at 107.17, up 2.202 or 2.10% from the benchmark price. It is expected that the retail price limit of refined oil will be increased by 230 yuan / ton at 24:00 on May 16. According to jinlianchuang's calculation, as of the ninth working day, the average price of the reference crude oil varieties was US $107.47/barrel, with a change rate of 2.19%. The corresponding domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel should be increased by 240 yuan / ton. It is estimated that the retail price increase in this round may be about 250 yuan / ton, and the equivalent price increase of No. 92 gasoline is about 0.20 yuan. In addition, according to the calculation of Southwest Securities Automobile Industry Research Report, it is expected that the oil price will be increased by 220 yuan / ton, exceeding the red line of the increase, which is equivalent to the expected oil price increase of 0.17-0.20 yuan / liter. After the price adjustment, the national average price of No. 92 gasoline is about 8.7 yuan / liter and that of No. 95 gasoline is about 9.2 yuan / liter. For this round of price increases, Zhongyu information believes that the EU sanctions on Russian oil products have not been carried out smoothly. At the same time, European countries have put forward plans to gradually reduce their dependence on Russian oil. Mixed with long and short news, the international oil price may continue to fluctuate widely in the near future. However, due to the bad influence at the end of the pricing cycle, the continuous rise of the retail end of refined oil has been determined. In the future, according to Soochow futures analysis, the oil price support is mainly due to OPEC + supply gap, Russian supply risk, lower than expected output growth in the United States, which are relatively realistic and difficult to change in the short term. The pressure on oil prices mainly comes from the expectation of economic downturn and domestic epidemic. The former is more inclined to emotional transmission, and the latter is not expected to last for a long time. Baichuan Yingfu pointed out that OPEC will maintain the existing production increase measures and cannot effectively increase idle production capacity. In addition, the EU plans to gradually stop importing Russian crude oil and sanction Russian banks, which aggravates the concerns about crude oil supply and has strong bottom support for international oil prices. However, we still need to be alert to the Fed's interest rate hike and the slowdown of economic and energy demand in the future. (Xinhua News Agency)
Edit：He Chuanning Responsible editor：Su Suiyue
Source：economic view
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