Musk: actually, I'm a miner
2022-05-12
After the acquisition of twitter, musk, who was not short of money, started mining again. "In the future, we will buy mining companies." "If this is the only way to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles, the possibility is on the table," Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in an interview on May 10 Musk is not short of money. He is the richest man in the world, worth more than $230 billion. He previously bought twitter for $44 billion, and later locked in a "new target" - the acquisition of American consumer goods giant Coca Cola. He has coveted buying mines for a long time. Not long ago, Tesla and Brazilian mining giant vale reached a long-term nickel supply agreement. In February this year, Tesla also signed a large purchase order with an Australian lithium miner and booked one-third of the annual output of the lithium miner's flagship project. The reason why Tesla buys mines all over the world is very simple - the prices of lithium and nickel are rising so crazy that it is difficult for musk, a master of cost control, to control its costs. Both lithium and nickel are important raw materials for new energy vehicles. As a large user of new energy vehicles, Tesla undoubtedly has a huge demand for minerals. Musk once said that the supply of nickel and lithium is one of the biggest challenges for Tesla to expand production capacity. "Tesla may have to directly mine and refine the required metals on a large scale." 01 Musk's lithium nickel anxiety As early as 2018, Tesla negotiated with Sociedad quimica y minera S.A., Chile's largest lithium producer. At that time, it was rumored that the two sides would cooperate to establish a processing plant to produce lithium. Although this ambiguous period soon ended, it also exposed Musk's ambition. In 2020, musk claimed to acquire a mining company to obtain lithium resources. Soon after, he said that he had won the mining right of a lithium mine in Nevada and wanted to build his own lithium refining plant. In September of the same year, musk directly signed a five-year supply agreement with Australian lithium producer Piedmont lithium to ensure supply. In order to obtain more mineral resources, musk publicly shouted at the financial report telephone conference in the second quarter of 2020, "who can mine nickel efficiently and environmentally friendly, Tesla will promise to provide huge contracts to qualified miners." Also from then on, Tesla began to look for minerals around the world. In July 2021, Tesla signed a nickel supply contract with Western nickel under BHP Billiton, an Australian mining giant. Last October, Tesla signed a purchase contract with Proni resources, a mining company located in New Caledonia, to purchase 42000 tons of nickel. In addition to direct procurement, Tesla has also begun to open geological related posts. Zach zens, a former exploration expert of Rio Tinto Group, has issued a document saying that he will join Tesla as a geologist. Source: Tesla official website This means that musk is slowly infiltrating into the mining industry chain and gradually completing the "one-stop" layout from the most upstream ore mining and refining to making its own batteries. In fact, it is not just lithium resources. In order to complete the vision of "accelerating the transformation of the world to sustainable energy", musk is also looking for alternative battery raw materials. Musk revealed that Tesla will release relevant news in the next few months, "it will certainly make everyone excited." However, Musk's multi hand preparation did not alleviate the current anxiety. The soaring sales of electric vehicles promote the explosive growth of lithium battery demand, and the speed of mineral extraction lags far behind the speed of market growth. Under the condition of huge market demand, some key materials for battery manufacturing will inevitably be in serious shortage and imbalance between supply and demand. A person in charge of a waste battery recycling manufacturer said that the mining development cycle is very long, and all kinds of complex approval procedures are also required. Even after completing various processes such as exploration right and purchase of mineral right, the mine still needs to be built, and the ore can be mined only after passing the acceptance after completion. "It will take 5-6 years as soon as possible." This means that far water does not quench near thirst. What's more, in the mining war, the contestants are far more than Tesla. At the beginning of this year, BYD obtained a lithium mining contract in Chile. As early as 2010, BYD obtained an 18% stake in Zabuye lithium industry in Tibet. Like BYD, Toyota Motor was laid out earlier. As early as 2010, Toyota developed lithium mines and set up factories in Argentina through its main body responsible for overseas investment, Toyota Tongshang. In addition to car companies, battery manufacturers are the protagonists in the mining war. Taking Ningde era as an example, they offered about 260 million yuan to buy shares in Pilbara, an Australian lithium producer, as early as 2019, accounting for 8.5%. In May this year, Ningde Times said that it had obtained the lithium exploration right in Yichun, Jiangxi Province. Even so, the competition for minerals is far from the end. At present, the demand for battery raw materials is strong, and the front is gradually lengthened. Competitors will only get deeper and deeper in the competition for energy. 02 without middlemen, profits can rise Behind Musk's crazy purchase of minerals is his extreme desire to realize the freedom of battery raw materials. A price trend chart released on twitter by the US statistics website world of statistics shows that the price of lithium metal has increased by more than 17 times in 11 years from 2012 to 2022. This wave of rising raw material prices has intensified against the background of soaring prices of new energy vehicles. Since the beginning of this year, under the influence of multiple factors such as the epidemic, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia and inflation, the battery industry has experienced several rounds of price rise. Now, compared with the beginning of the year, the price rise of battery cost is more than 30%. What is this concept? If the battery cost of a car is 80000 yuan, the increase of more than 30% is about 25000 yuan, which is equivalent to the gross profit of a car. This is also the reason. Since this year, many new energy vehicle enterprises, including Xiaopeng, ideal, BYD and so on, have opened multiple rounds of price increases. The mini car represented by Great Wall Euler has been directly suspended because of the loss of one car. Worse than the price rise is that money can't buy goods. From the perspective of the producer, lithium resources mainly exist in the form of ore lithium and brine lithium. According to the existence mode of resources, the lithium extraction process is also different. At present, it can be roughly divided into ore lithium extraction and salt lake lithium extraction. The technology of ore lithium extraction has been relatively mature, but the cost is high; In comparison, although the production cost of lithium extraction from Salt Lake is low, the production cycle is very long and the production capacity is not guaranteed. A person in charge of lithium carbonate enterprise lamented that lithium carbonate is settled according to the "current price" every day, and customers who come to the door to "ask for carbon" don't ask the price, they almost take it when they have goods. Some customers can't get the goods because the company doesn't have excess inventory at all. For musk, who believes in the first principle, the shortage of raw materials and rising prices are obviously unbearable. It is undoubtedly the best choice to start by yourself without middlemen to earn the difference. In fact, musk has always been a fan of the "one-stop" production model of Ford Rouge factory. Rouge factory, which was completed and put into operation in 1928, has built railways, power plants and steel terminals. From raw material processing to automobile manufacturing, rouge factory almost completely controls the whole chain of automobile production. Musk hopes Tesla factory has the same ability. He even joked that it's best to "drive the factory into the mine and drive a car". This is why Tesla will independently develop 4680 batteries and start mining and refining, which is also one of the key directions for Tesla to reduce battery costs. At present, Tesla's control over the battery raw material supply chain has begun to take shape. Drawing: super electric laboratory Not long ago, Tesla released a list of suppliers of basic materials required for manufacturing power batteries, and disclosed the complete supplier information of nickel, cobalt and lithium raw materials of the company for the first time. This list includes a total of 12 suppliers. Among them, there are five Chinese enterprises, and the products of two suppliers are involved in refining and chemical extraction of Companies in China. Tesla said that purchasing directly from mining companies can directly participate in the local market without relying on multiple midstream companies, which makes the supply chain more transparent and traceable. Obviously, as more direct suppliers join Tesla's supply list, Tesla's bargaining power will be further improved. At the beginning of this year, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice president of China electric vehicle hundred people's Association, said at the electric vehicle hundred people's meeting that the reasons for the current round of power battery material price rise are basically the same as the lithium resource price rise in 2016-2018. The mismatch between supply and demand of lithium resources is a short-term phenomenon and may return to normal in 2-3 years. This means that the rising tide of electric vehicle prices will eventually return to rationality, and the rising prices may be wiped out again. In this context, should Tesla launch 160000 cars after opening up the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain? (Xinhua News Agency)
Edit：Li Ling Responsible editor：Chen Jie
Source：SuperEV-Lab
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