Semiconductor giant, predicting the future of chips
2022-05-11
At present, the semiconductor industry can be described as "ice and fire". The gloomy stock market and the booming market are intertwined, which makes the future of the chip industry look more "confusing". When can the stock market usher in a turning point? How long can the chip market flourish? These questions are hovering in people's minds. Recently, a number of chip giants, including Intel, Samsung Electronics, Qualcomm and TSMC, have released their latest quarterly financial reports. In addition to announcing their revenue, they also expressed their views on the future trend of chips. In this article, let's see how giants view the future of chips? IDM giant Among IDM manufacturers, Intel, Samsung Electronics, micron, Texas Instruments, STMicroelectronics and NXP have released the latest quarterly financial reports. Intel On April 29, Intel announced the first quarter financial report of 2022, with revenue of US $18.4 billion, of which the revenue of client computing division (CCG) was US $9.3 billion; Data center and artificial intelligence (DCAI) revenue of US $6 billion; Network and edge division (nex) revenue of $2.2 billion; The revenue of accelerated computing systems and graphics division (axg) is 219 million US dollars; Mobileye earned $394 million. For the operation outlook of the second quarter, David zinsner, chief financial officer of Intel, stressed that the inventory challenge should continue until the second quarter, but will be alleviated in the second half of the year. The epidemic has exacerbated consumer concerns about supply, and inflation may reduce annual PC shipments. Revenue is expected to be about $18 billion in the second quarter. In Intel's view, it is entering a stronger product cycle. In addition to its strong product line, the strong demand of large-scale data centers, enterprises and government customers is also promoting the development of DCAI. In terms of wafer foundry, Intel said it would launch five nodes within four years by 2025, which indicates a good prospect for this year and the next few years. Therefore, Intel remains confident that it will meet the performance guidelines for the whole year. Samsung Electronics On April 28, Samsung Electronics released the financial report for the first quarter of fiscal year 2022, with a revenue of 77.78 trillion won (about 404.5 billion yuan), and the revenue of the device experience Department (including consumer electronics and mobile business) in the first quarter was 48.07 trillion won; The revenue of equipment solutions department is 26.87 trillion won, of which the revenue of storage business is 20.09 trillion won; Display business unit revenue of 7.97 trillion won; Haman's revenue is 2.67 trillion won. Image source: Samsung Electronics financial report Samsung Electronics expects that in the second quarter, under the continuous uncertainty, with server as the center, the memory demand will remain stable and the market demand will remain strong. Although the demand for smart phones decreased slightly in the first quarter, with the continuous penetration of new CPU and ddr5 in the second half of the year, the demand for servers continues to be stable, and the demand for high-density mobile phones will also recover. In terms of OEM, Samsung expects that the OEM supply will continue to be in shortage in the second half of the year, and will continue to develop the 3nm second-generation GAA process (3gap) according to the planned progress to maintain its leading position in technology. Meguiar On March 30, micron announced the results of the second quarter of fiscal year 2022, with revenue of US $7.8 billion. DRAM revenue increased by 29% over the same period last year, accounting for 73% of the total revenue, and NAND flash memory revenue increased by 19%. Photo source: Meguiar financial report Regarding the chip shortage, micron said that in some regions, the semiconductor shortage has not improved as rapidly as expected, and the chip shortage in these regions may continue until 2023. For wafer capacity, micron pointed out that it is necessary to add new wafer capacity for DRAM within the time frame of 25-26 years, so as to continue to cope with the demand growth in the second half of this decade within the time frame of 2030. For the downstream end market, Meguiar's CFO sadana said that Meguiar expects the growth of personal computer business to be "flat" throughout the year, and the memory usage of enterprise desktops and laptops will increase. In terms of mobile phones, Meguiar expects sales to maintain a low single digit growth, but the increase in memory capacity of each mobile phone will once again drive strong growth. In terms of automobiles, Meguiar expects that the supply will remain tight in the next few quarters, and the shift of carmakers to electric vehicles should be "an incredibly strong driving force in the next few years". For the Russian Ukrainian war, Meguiar said that it is expected that the Russian Ukrainian war will not have any negative impact on short-term production, but the cost will increase. Texas Instruments On April 26, Texas Instruments released the first quarter financial report of fiscal year 2022, with a revenue of $4.905 billion in the first quarter. Although Ti said that it did not intend to predict the cycle or the future and continued to deal with things independently of the cycle, it said that it would continue to improve production capacity and increase inventory now and in the future. For the downstream end market, Ti pointed out that the hot data center and enterprise computing drive the strong growth of enterprise system. Looking forward to the next few years, it may continue to grow strongly, but its proportion in TI's revenue is not very large. For the strategic focus of the industrial and automotive areas, Texas Instruments said it was pleased to see the growth of these two areas transformed into long-term growth. Italian French semiconductor On April 27, Italy France semiconductor released its 2022q1 financial report, with a current revenue of US $3.546 billion. Among them, the revenue of automotive products and discrete components was US $1.256 billion; The revenue of simulator, MEMS and sensor (AMS) is US $1087 million; The revenue of MCU and digital IC was US $1.198 billion. Looking ahead, STMicroelectronics expects that Q2 is expected to achieve a revenue of US $3.75 billion, and the annual revenue is expected to reach US $14.8 billion to US $15.3 billion. In the automotive market, STMicroelectronics predicts that the sales volume of mass-produced vehicles will decline slightly in 2022. However, driven by the inventory replenishment cycle of the automotive supply chain and the trend of electrification and digital transformation, the visibility of backlog orders in the automotive business is still up to 18 months, which is much higher than the current supply capacity of St. the demand of the entire supply chain of the automotive industry is still very strong throughout the year. NXP On May 2, NXP semiconductor announced its financial report for the first quarter of 2022 (as of April 3, 2022), with a revenue of US $3.136 billion, a record high. According to reports, NXP's automotive semiconductor business is the most prominent. NXP financial report shows that Q1 channel inventory in 2021 was 1.6 months. After one year of increasing capacity utilization, Q1 channel inventory decreased to 1.5 months in 2022. Kurt sievers, CEO of NXP, pointed out that it is expected to achieve strong growth in 2022, especially the unique accelerating growth momentum of NXP. On the whole, the market is still in short supply. Inventories are still very low in all end markets. Chip design giant After taking stock of IDM manufacturers, let's take a look at chip design enterprises such as apple, Qualcomm, MediaTek, AMD and Broadcom. Apple On April 29, Apple released the financial report of 2022fq2 (cq1, March quarter), with a revenue of US $97.28 billion, a new high in March. Although Apple said that the chip shortage was affected by many situations, so it would not predict the chip shortage, it also pointed out that the most important problem facing the company at present is the chip shortage. The supply restrictions caused by the production interruption related to the epidemic and the chip shortage in the whole industry affect Apple's ability to meet customers' demand for products, and these restrictions are expected to affect US $4 billion to US $8 billion. Apple said that the company does not tend to hold a large amount of inventory, so it will shorten the time for chips to enter the final assembly plant from the wafer factory as much as possible. high pass On April 27, Qualcomm released the second quarter financial report of fiscal year 2022 as of March 27, with a record quarterly revenue of US $11.2 billion, of which the revenue of QCT chip business reached US $9.5 billion. Qualcomm said that considering the situation in China and the subsequent macroeconomic situation, there is more uncertainty, but the demand signal is strong and the supply is also improving. Qualcomm believes that the quarter at the end of September is the second turning point of this year. Many companies will release flagship products at the end of August. It is expected that there will be strong year-on-year growth in the fields of Internet of things, automobile and RF front-end by the quarter of September. In addition, in the mobile phone market, Qualcomm pointed out that the mobile phone market is expected to drive growth through the improvement of supply and the transition from 4G to 5g. And as the demand for computing power increases, whether it is CPU, GPU or?? Smart, camera? With the increasing demand for processing capacity, such as frequency and video, the competition pattern among original equipment manufacturers will also be conducive to the value of single machine. MediaTek On April 27, MediaTek released its financial report for the first quarter of 2022, with a total revenue of NT $142.711 billion (about 31.7 billion yuan). MediaTek pointed out in its financial report that it had previously thought that the global smartphone shipment would increase by a lower single digit percentage, but now it has been reduced to the same year-on-year growth, with a shipment of 1.35 billion units. At present, there are about 650 million to 680 million 5g smartphones in the world, slightly lower than the previously estimated 700 million, but MediaTek believes that its penetration rate still has a year-on-year increase of 30%. In addition, in terms of wafer foundry, MediaTek believes that the capacity of wafer foundry remains high. AMD On May 3, amd announced its first quarter results, with revenue of US $5.887 billion (about 38.953 billion yuan). Dr. Su Zifeng, chairman and CEO of AMD, said that although the PC market began to show some weakness after record shipments in several quarters, the key parts of the market, such as high-end, games and commerce, still saw strong growth opportunities. Looking ahead, amd said that although the consumption of personal computers is weak, the demand of data center business is extremely strong. Therefore, it raised the revenue growth forecast from 31% to 35%, and the revenue in the second quarter is expected to be $6.5 billion. broadcom On March 3, Broadcom announced the results of the first quarter of 2022, with a revenue of US $7.7 billion. For the future chip trend, Broadcom pointed out that the downstream demand is still very strong, and the pricing will be stable until 2023 due to price rigidity and other factors. In Broadcom's view, the annual income growth rate of 20% - 25% is relatively stable and can last until the end of 22 years at least. For the long-term growth rate of semiconductor business, Broadcom said that it does not think that CAGR will change in the long run in the next 10 years, because there is no evidence that the relatively mature semiconductor industry will suddenly show different growth trends. OEM and lithography machine faucet Affected by the shortage of chips, the production capacity of wafer foundry remains high, and the necessary lithography machines for chip manufacturing are also in short supply. How do TSMC, liandian and asmai look at the future of chips? TSMC On April 14, TSMC released its financial report for the first quarter of 2022, with a revenue of US $17.57 billion in the first quarter. TSMC believes that thanks to the related applications of 5g and HPC, the structural demand for semiconductors will grow for a long time. Driven by the applications of HPC, smart phones, automobiles and the Internet of things, TSMC is expected to maintain high production capacity in 2022, and the revenue growth in 2022 is expected to be 25-29% (in US dollars). For the supply chain, TSMC pointed out that HPC and automotive business growth will remain strong, but some of the growth may be offset by weak demand for smartphones. In terms of inventory, the supply chain will continue to maintain a high inventory level for a long time due to the recent investigation on supply chain interruption and the uncertainty caused by the political tension of foreign employment. For the current inflation environment, TSMC believes that although the momentum of some market segments such as mobile phones, PCs and tablets has weakened, the demand of other market segments such as MCU, power and military IC is still strong. In fact, in
Edit：Li Ling Responsible editor：Chen Jie
Source：icbank
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