100 billion business of power battery retirement tide
2022-04-28
If 2015 is the beginning of the rapid marketization of new energy vehicles, the first wave of power battery retirement will officially enter the peak this year and next year according to the service life of power batteries of about 5-8 years. The power battery recycling industry started in 2020 and entered the stage of white hot competition in 2021. Tianyancha data show that at present, there are 38500 power battery recycling related enterprises in China, including 3321 new power battery recycling related enterprises in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 143%; In 2021, 24400 new companies were added, with a year-on-year increase of 635%. The Nuggets are eager to recover the power of the track, which has become extremely hot for a year. Especially after entering 2022, the overweight or entry of head power battery manufacturers and relevant parties in the industrial chain will add another fire to the power battery recycling track which is already in a high temperature state. On April 14, puqin times, a holding subsidiary of Ningde times, signed a tripartite agreement with Pt Aneka tambang (antam) and Pt industri baterai Indonesia (IBI) to jointly build a power battery industry chain project including nickel mining and smelting, battery materials, battery manufacturing and battery recycling, with a total investment of no more than US $5.968 billion (about RMB 38.02 billion). Coincidentally, BYD also entered the power battery recycling track the day before. On April 13, BYD established Taizhou Verdi Battery Co., Ltd. in Taizhou, Zhejiang Province, which is indirectly wholly owned by BYD. Its business scope includes battery manufacturing and sales, recycling and echelon utilization of waste power batteries of new energy vehicles, research and development of new materials and technologies, etc. Cao Xu, a person in the power battery industry, told "tankeshen technology" that the layout of power battery recycling business by Ningde times and BYD means that they have made up the last puzzle in the power battery industry chain and formed a closed loop of the industry chain. "From the exploitation of raw materials at the top of the industrial chain to the recycling at the end, Ningde times and BYD can not only further reduce production costs, but also realize recycling, which is equivalent to setting a double guarantee for the supply of raw materials, but also provide basic conditions for expanding production capacity and seizing market share." Cao Xu said. However, the layout of power battery recycling business is not "Baili without harm". For power battery manufacturers, due to the large construction scale and long construction cycle of power battery recycling business, the capital chain is often tight and the construction cost is much higher than the expected cost. In terms of power battery recycling industry, due to the differences in design, materials, uses and other aspects of power batteries, the production standards and types of power batteries are different, which virtually increases the difficulty of recycling and utilization, and makes it difficult to form scale effect in a short time. But difficulties do not stop the influx of gold diggers. At present, in addition to Ningde times and BYD, relevant parties in the industrial chain such as greenmei, Tianci materials, GuoXuan high tech, Yiwei lithium energy, Weima automobile and Tianqi have successively entered the power battery recycling track. The power battery recycling industry with a market scale of 100 billion has reached the eve of the outbreak. 1. The market space is large and there are many gold diggers Before going into the power battery recycling industry, let's talk about "why retired power batteries need recycling". In this regard, Cao Xu made a detailed explanation to "explore customer deep technology". First, based on the level of environmental protection, it is estimated that a mobile phone battery weighing about 20 grams can pollute 1 square kilometer of land for up to 50 years. In contrast, the power battery is larger and heavier and contains a large number of metal compounds and phosphates. Random disposal will pose a great threat to the soil and environment. Secondly, based on the level of resources, the production of power batteries is often accompanied by the huge consumption of scarce resources such as lithium, nickel and cobalt. The recycling of retired power batteries not only alleviates the excessive consumption of scarce resources, but also increases the stability of raw material supply. At present, there are two main recovery and treatment methods for decommissioned power batteries: One is echelon utilization, that is, retired power batteries are used in power grid energy storage, household energy storage and other fields with low requirements for battery electrochemical performance by means of repair, modification or remanufacturing; The other is recycling, in which the available resources (mainly metals) in retired power batteries are disassembled and recycled by chemical, physical or biological means, and then used in powder metallurgy and other fields. It can be seen that the necessity of power battery recovery and related technologies have been. Then, how big is its market prospect? According to the statistics of China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, from 2013 to 2021, China's power battery loading increased from 0.8gwh to 154.5gwh, with a compound annual growth rate of 93.1%, showing an obvious upward trend. In the first quarter of 2022, China's power battery loading volume was 51.3gwh, an increase of 120.7% year-on-year. "It is generally expected in the industry that the sales volume of China's new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 10 million in 2025. According to the estimation of the service life of power batteries, decommissioned power batteries will account for almost more than 20% of the loading volume of power batteries in 2025. The demand for recycling decommissioned power batteries in the market will become more and more urgent." Cao Xu said. According to the Research Report of East Asia Qianhai securities, by 2030, the total scale of power batteries to be recycled may reach 2.37 million tons, including 1.53 million tons of lithium iron phosphate batteries and 840000 tons of ternary batteries. At that time, the recycling market space of power batteries will reach 107.43 billion yuan. However, compared with solving the urgent demand for retired power battery recycling, a more realistic significance is that the power battery recycling business can open up a new growth curve for many enterprises. Take Tianqi Co., Ltd., an automobile full life cycle service provider, as an example, which tasted the benefits of power battery recycling business in 2021. According to the financial report of 2021, the total revenue of Tianqi shares was 3.779 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.19%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 151 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 146.77%, both reaching a record high. Among them, Tianqi jintaige, a wholly-owned subsidiary, has greatly enhanced its overall performance by virtue of lithium battery recycling business (i.e. power battery recycling business). In 2021, the total revenue of Tianqi jintaige was 988 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 224 million yuan, a sharp increase of 622.58% year-on-year. It is worth comparing that the total revenue of Tianqi jintaige from 2018 to 2020 was 530 million yuan, 450 million yuan and 650 million yuan respectively, while the net profit attributable to the parent was 60 million yuan, 37 million yuan and 31 million yuan respectively. It can be seen that the performance of Tianqi Jintai Pavilion in 2021 has achieved a very obvious jump compared with the same period in 2020. Behind this, Tianqi shares realized that the development space of power battery recycling market was huge in 2021. Therefore, Tianqi jintaige, which has all metal extraction process of lithium battery, launched the production expansion and technical transformation project for lithium battery recycling business in the second half of 2021. The project also brought back huge returns for Tianqi shares. According to the financial report of 2021, the lithium battery recycling business has become the second largest business of Tianqi, with a revenue of 896 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 214.07%, accounting for 23.72% of the total revenue, and the gross profit margin is as high as 35.68%, far exceeding the gross profit margin of the other four businesses, thus directly boosting the overall performance. In fact, the $100 billion power battery recycling cake has long been watched by countless gold diggers. For example, greenmei cut into the power battery recycling track in 2015. In the first half of 2021, grime's power battery recycling business achieved a revenue of 54.737 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.90%. According to the performance forecast, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 is expected to be about 866 million yuan to 990 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110% to 140%. Almost in line with the pace of greenmead, Ningde era also acquired Bangpu cycle in 2015 and cut into the power battery recycling track. At present, the plant of Hunan Bangpu, a subsidiary of Bangpu recycling, is still the largest power battery recycling base in China. In addition, GuoXuan high tech plans to invest 12 billion yuan to build a production base including upstream raw materials and battery recycling of power batteries; Guanghua technology plans to invest 3 billion yuan to build a comprehensive utilization production line of retired power batteries, etc. With the increasing number of gold diggers, the competition in the field of power battery recycling will become more and more fierce, and a cake battle is inevitable. 2. The market system still needs to be improved Although the power battery recycling industry has gone to the eve of the outbreak, there is still a huge risk of "bad money driving out good money". At present, the Ministry of industry and information technology has issued the announcement on the list of enterprises in the industry standard conditions for the comprehensive utilization of waste power batteries of new energy vehicles for three times. A total of 45 power battery recycling enterprises, including Bangpu cycle and greenmei, have been included in the "white list". However, the "white list" does not have mandatory exclusivity, and retired power batteries can also be recycled if they are not on the "white list". Therefore, in the case of imperfect industry standards and recycling system, there are few retired power batteries that really flow to formal channels. "In 2020, China's total decommissioned power batteries exceeded 200000 tons, but only about 30000 tons went to formal channels, and more than 100000 tons of decommissioned power batteries went to informal channels. The situation was similar in 2021, with only 20% - 30% of decommissioned power batteries recovered from formal channels." Cao Xu revealed to "probe deep technology". The reason why large-scale retired power batteries flow to informal channels is that the prices of raw materials are soaring. After entering 2022, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate has exceeded 500000 yuan / ton, and the price of lithium hydroxide has also exceeded 480000 yuan / ton. In just one year, the prices of both have soared tenfold. In addition, with the soaring price of raw materials, the recycling price of retired power batteries has repeatedly reached new highs. "It is mainly due to the rise of recycling prices without a bottom line in some informal channels." Cao Xu further explained, "taking lithium metal as an example, its acquisition methods mainly include mining and recycling. When the mining threshold is very high and difficult, recovering lithium metal through recycling and refining has become the main way to grab huge profits through informal channels. In order to acquire retired power batteries, the simplest and effective way is to raise the recycling price to a height beyond the reach of formal channels." For formal channels, raising the recycling price is more than enough. A power battery recycler told "tankeshen technology" that it is very difficult to enter the "white list", which needs to meet at least more than 50 evaluation conditions. In addition, it has to ensure that all kinds of environmental protection and safety facilities are complete, and even there are rigid regulations in terms of storage and transportation, "the cost is very high, so it is impossible to raise the recycling price at will". On the contrary, informal channels have not undergone rigorous review, the recycling process has not been effectively supervised, the great harm to the environment is not paid attention to, and the recycling process is uneven, and even the necessary links such as battery detection are directly omitted. The combination of various factors leads to its extremely low cost, so it often dares to raise the recycling price, but even so, informal channels are still profitable. Another power battery recycler told "tankeshen technology" that there are still hoarding and speculation in many informal channels, "and the market environment is very chaotic". The power battery recycling industry seems to be running towards an extremely contradictory state: qualified formal channels have no sources of goods, while informal channels with large sources of goods are not
Edit：Li Ling Responsible editor：Chen Jie
Source：TKshenkeji
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