Is folding screen the future of main engine?
2022-04-12
For the folding screen enthusiast Thangka, the folding screen mobile phone without mature technology is the most unacceptable. The first is the crease. Even for daily use, serious creases appeared in less than half a year. The second is glue falling, which will break when it falls. For more than a year from 2020 to 2021, Thangka has changed the folding screen mobile phone for three times in a row. There is no doubt that the first two times were due to the damage under normal use, the deformation of the shell and the leakage of the screen, which directly killed on the spot, and there is no chance to change the screen. Even if you love it again, a 7000 or 8000 folding screen mobile phone will not be replaced frequently, and the cost will not be very low, not to mention its practicability. Folding enthusiasts know that the love of folding screen mobile phones is not only high-tech, but also easy, convenient and practical. From the market perspective, the significance of folding screen mobile phones is actually to solve the contradiction between larger and larger screens and the portability of mobile phones, and to replace tablet computers to a certain extent. So essentially, the task that the full screen wants to accomplish is the same, that is, to install a larger screen with a smaller body. Therefore, at the beginning of the research and development of folding mobile phones, we need to experience not only the improvement on the basis of the original straight screen flagship machine, but also the iterative upgrading of the hinges used in the folding process. In terms of the development of manufacturers, we can find that manufacturers have begun to focus on the ease of use and practicability of folding screens, whether from oppo find n's "from early taste to common use", glory Magic V's "let folding screen mobile phones enter the era of main players", or even vivo X's "dare to serve the world". To some extent, folding screen mobile phones are actually more like an important "symbol" leading to high-end development for most manufacturers. 1. High end is a must Since 2016, the smartphone market has tended to be saturated and the growth rate has slowed significantly. According to the data released by the statistical agency IDC, in 2017, the total shipments of smart phones in the world were about 1.465 billion, and the shipments in China were 460 million. The downward trend began to break down until 2021. In 2021, the overall global shipments reached 1.35 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.65%, and the domestic shipments reached 340 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. The top five brands in global smartphone shipments in 2021 are Samsung, apple, Xiaomi, oppo and vivo. Among them, Samsung accounted for 20.1%, apple 17.4%, Xiaomi 14.1%, oppo 9.9% and vivo 9.5%. Obviously, if you want to promote the growth of the industry in the future, the main driving force must be the user's demand for machine replacement brought by the structural upgrading of products driven by technology. The folding screen mobile phone is a "must fight place" for manufacturers to enter the high-end market and promote users' demand for replacement. According to the IDC report, the global shipments of folding screen mobile phones in 2021 were about 7.1 million, accounting for about 0.5% of the global smart phones. The shipments of folding screen mobile phones in the Chinese market are about 1.5 million, accounting for 0.5% in the domestic smartphone market, of which Huawei has won nearly "half of the country", and Samsung has a market share of 28.8%. At present, there are two kinds of folding screen mobile phones on the market, one is the horizontal folding screen and the other is the vertical folding screen. If the vertical folding screen mobile phone is aimed at subdivided groups, the horizontal folding screen mobile phone is aimed at a relatively more popular market. In fact, glory Magic V, oppo find n, Samsung Z fold3 and vivo x fold all use horizontal inner folding screens. Among them, glory is built entirely according to the idea of the main machine. An obvious feature of magicv is stacking. In addition to the new generation Xiaolong 8 mobile platform, glory Magic V is also trying to be the "main force" in the configuration of internal and external screens. Oppo find n has a 5.49-inch 18:9 external screen inserted into a 73mm wide (folded) fuselage. Both the display ratio and the hand feel are very in line with the habit of using ordinary mobile phones every day. It is worth noting that as an upstream supply chain manufacturer of folding screen, Samsung has absolute advantages in hinge, screen material and effect. Samsung zfold3 has come to the third generation, with more mature technology and more complete product ideas. For example, this time it supports s pen and more hover interaction, which not only makes the folding screen mobile phone play more, but also enriches the application scenarios. Samsung zfold3 In terms of overall technology iteration, although Samsung has good technical advantages compared with competitive products, the price is generally the highest in the market. It is reported that vivo x fold has reached the level of x70pro + in the image index, and the hinge, one of the key hardware of the folding screen, is produced by Amphenol, the world's largest connector manufacturer. The initial mass production cost of vivo x fold's water drop hinge is more than 1200 yuan. Like the previous find n hinge manufactured by Amphenol, it basically achieves no creases, high service life and L-shaped hover. However, in order to make users feel easy to use, problems such as heaviness, endurance and crease need to be solved in hardware, and the perfect adaptation of application experience in internal and external screens is needed in software. Frankly speaking, although major brands have made their own focused choices, but in terms of software and hardware, due to the limitations of technical conditions, several folding screen mobile phones on the market are not perfect. It is undeniable that for domestic manufacturers, many pain points can be solved in the experience of office and entertainment. At the same time, folding screen mobile phones are the best opportunity to enter the high-end market. But to some extent, the impact of high-end test is technological innovation and brand influence. In addition, at present, the performance of folding screen in application ecology is not mature, and there is still room for breakthrough in Creating Killer experience. 2 "Impossible Triangle" of folding screen mobile phone According to the data of 1.5 million folding screen mobile phones produced in China in 2021, after three years of folding screen mobile phones, they have not risen rapidly in the domestic market due to industrial innovation. In fact, the problems facing the mobile phone industry are not unique. Almost all mature industries, including PC, have a similar innovation dilemma. However, to some extent, folding screen mobile phones are much more difficult in terms of battery life, high brush and the overall thickness of mobile phones. The first is endurance. In terms of battery capacity, the mobile phone battery of oppo find n is 4500ma; 4600 Ma for vifold; 3300 Ma for Samsung zfold3; Glory Magic V is 4000 ma. The battery technology (or energy storage technology) has reached the bottleneck and even stagnated for many years. The reason is that the current battery technology is difficult to make a revolutionary breakthrough, and the performance of traditional chemical battery is close to the theoretical limit. Although compared with ten years ago, human civil battery technology has made great progress, compared with the progress of electronic products, battery technology lags far behind. Among them, the exponential growth of Moore's law also represents the rapid development of electronic technology. The batteries of electronic devices are overwhelmed by larger screens, higher resolution, stronger CPUs and more black technology blessings. On the other hand, in 5g applications, the endurance capacity will also be indirectly reduced. The second is weight. The weight of tablets of different models and sizes is different, and the current folding screen mobile phone is normally about 7 inches, so the weight of the general 7-inch iPad is about two or three hundred grams. Similarly, the folding screen mobile phone on the market is normally about two or three hundred grams. Obviously, the folding screen in the current market does not achieve the two in one of mobile iPad. Taking the folding screen as one of the key elements of the host to reduce the weight. If the folding screen needs to maintain the flat panel level battery, it will not reduce the weight, but increase (the weight of the hinge). At present, the folding screen has achieved the same weight as the flat panel by reducing the battery, but there is still a big gap with the mobile phone. To put it simply, you have to give up the endurance when you subtract the weight, and you have to give up the weight when you improve the endurance. You can't have both. Even in another dimension, if the folding only reduces part of the size, and the weight is completely flat, how meaningful is it? Perhaps, people don't need an infinitely light mobile phone, and they will choose between an infinitely long battery life and a larger screen. Or perhaps there will be a new revolutionary display technology before the inflection point. For example, it can be completely lightweight to the extent of all large and small electronic devices, and even the obstacles of products such as AR glasses can be removed. However, we cannot know when the inflection point of this kind of technology will come. Inevitably, some people may wonder if one day the folding screen will completely cover the straight screen flagship if it achieves the weight of an ordinary mobile phone. To some extent, this is not impossible, but it will be difficult. Because the technology that can make the folding screen light can be used in mobile phones. Since the folding screen is light, mobile phones will only be lighter. Why don't people choose lighter mobile phones? If you don't need a lighter phone, you can increase the battery life of the phone, which is stronger than the folding screen. At that time, the straight screen flagship machine still has advantages that are difficult to have than the folding screen. Finally, high brush. At present, the major brands have different opinions on the high brush Hz value of the inner and outer screens. Either the inner and outer screen values are 90hz and 120Hz, or the inner and outer screen values are 120Hz and 90hz. In fact, the idea of manufacturers is nothing more than to ensure that they have a 120Hz high brush and give consideration to a certain battery life. However, major manufacturers pay attention to different scenes. 120Hz on the inner screen pays more attention to games, watching dramas and other scenes. It can also be said that it is really positioned on the label of folding screen mobile phones. So why do almost all manufacturers pay attention to whether they have high brush? In the past, in the field of straight screen flagship machines, high brush was more like an important label for marketing, because high brush meant excellent visual experience and smooth enough operation. In general, stimulating user consumption seems to be a more important reason for the emergence of some innovations. Of course, if we want to make the horizontal folding screen mobile phone suitable for more people, we need to solve far more than the above problems. 3. Hard to sink thousand yuan market In the three years since the development of folding screen mobile phones, the IQ tax has been the most questioned in the market. If you put this on the price, it is not difficult to understand. On the one hand, at the beginning of the listing of folding screen mobile phones, the price directly began with 10000, and the crease is also one of the reasons why consumers think it is IQ tax. Make complaints about the mobile phone technology and the cost of maintenance. Taken together, it can be said that the sense of use does not deserve this price. Although, at present, while continuously improving the product quality, manufacturers have greatly reduced the sales price, it is worth considering that even if the price can be reduced to less than four or five thousand yuan, it is still difficult to cover low-level cities when weighing the improvement of software and hardware. The reason is very simple. Products at high prices cannot reach the middle and low-end market at the price of 1000-3000 yuan. At the same time, the proportion of medium and low-end market in most manufacturers is actually not low. Take oppo for example. According to September 2021
Edit：Li Ling Responsible editor：Chen Jie
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