Global markets press the "safe haven key" and commodity prices are expected to rise
2022-02-28
On February 24, affected by the geographical situation, the risk aversion in the global market increased significantly, the main stock indexes in Europe and the Asia Pacific region weakened significantly, and the futures prices of gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas rose across the board. Institutional sources said that the prices of energy and agricultural products are expected to rise, and the inflation level in Europe and the United States will rise further. Global financial markets were hit On February 24, the global financial market fluctuated sharply, the main stock indexes fell across the board, and the commodity market was favored by hedge funds. Major stock indexes in the Asia Pacific region closed down significantly. Among the three major indexes of China's a shares, the Shanghai index fell 1.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.20% and the gem index fell 2.11%. Among the major indexes of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index fell 3.21% and the Hang Seng China enterprise index fell 3.44%. In addition, the South Korean composite index fell 2.60%, the Nikkei 225 index fell 1.81%, Australia's S S & P 200 index fell 2.99%, and New Zealand's nzx50 index fell 3.31%. In terms of European financial markets, in the morning of February 24 local time, the Moscow Stock Exchange announced that all transactions would be suspended and when to resume trading would be notified separately. It was then announced that the transaction would resume at 10 a.m. local time. However, the two major stock indexes continued to fall sharply after opening. As of 17:15 Beijing time, the Russian RTS index fell by more than 38% and the Russian MOEX index fell by more than 34%. Other major European stock indexes also opened lower, with the FTSE 100 index in the UK, DAX index in Germany and CAC40 index in France all falling by more than 2%. In addition, U.S. stock index futures also fell sharply at the beginning of trading in Europe, with NASDAQ futures down more than 3%, S & P 500 index futures and Dow index futures down more than 2%. At the same time, the prices of international crude oil, natural gas futures and gold and silver futures with prominent risk aversion properties increased significantly. Among them, the price of Brent crude oil futures broke through $100 a barrel. Rising energy prices push up inflation Industry institutions and experts believe that we need to pay close attention to the impact of rising energy prices caused by geographical factors on inflation. Yang aozheng, chief Chinese analyst of fxtm Futuo, analyzed that from the perspective of financial markets, the current geopolitical situation will lead to further rise in energy prices, and the negative impact of the deterioration of the situation on the stock markets in some regions is inevitable. Yang Aozheng believes that the current inflation rate in Europe and the United States has reached a new high of nearly 40 years, and COVID-19 has not eased, resulting in the import and export cargo and supply chain disruption problem is difficult to solve in the first half of this year. As Russia plays a key role in European energy supply, especially in crude oil and natural gas, Russia supplies about 35% of European natural gas. If the geopolitical situation continues to escalate, the price of natural gas will rise sharply again. Overall, inflation in Europe and the United States is expected to rise further. The Federal Reserve may need to accelerate the pace of interest rate hike. The call for a 50 basis point interest rate hike in March will be higher, and the downward pressure on the stock market will increase. Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist of Jingshun, said that from the analysis of different asset classes, for the stock market, geographical factors will amplify the market fluctuations and potential market selling caused by the tightening of monetary policy. The pressure and volatility faced by different regional markets will continue, but this may be short-lived. The price of natural gas is of particular concern because it is often transmitted through pipelines and is more localized than shipping from exporting countries to importing countries. In terms of other commodities, Russia is the largest exporter of palladium and an important exporter of other metals. At the same time, Ukraine and Russia are both major producers of wheat and corn. Therefore, if the geopolitical situation continues to heat up, the prices of relevant commodities are expected to rise. (Xinhua News Agency)
Edit：He Chuanning Responsible editor：Su Suiyue
Source：China Securities News
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