Domestic refined oil prices continue to rise, and the industry is expected to impact the "five consecutive rises"
2022-02-23
On February 17, according to the website of the national development and Reform Commission, according to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market and the current price formation mechanism of refined oil, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard products) will be increased by 210 yuan and 200 yuan per ton respectively from 24:00 on February 17, 2022. According to the reporter of Securities Daily, this is the third rise in the retail price of refined oil since 2022, continuing the last rise in the retail price at the end of last year, realizing "four consecutive rises". Hu Xue, a refined oil analyst at Zhongyu information, told the Securities Daily that since the Spring Festival of the year of the tiger, international crude oil has been dominated by shocks. Initially, under the interaction of the decline of crude oil and refined oil inventories and the resumption of Iran nuclear negotiations, international oil prices have maintained a high consolidation; With the further escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the potential US European sanctions may further aggravate the tension of energy supply, and crude oil began to rise significantly, once reaching a new high in nearly seven years. In this context, the domestic refined oil retail end is expected to increase continuously. "The price adjustment of domestic refined oil has been raised again, which is mainly affected by several factors." Xie logistics, senior investment adviser of Jufeng investment consulting, said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that on the one hand, the international crude oil price remained high and geopolitical risks increased, resulting in the continuous rise of oil price; On the other hand, the supply-demand relationship is unbalanced. On the supply side, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintains the production increase policy, but the ineffective production increase in many countries leads to the decline of inventories. On the demand side, as the epidemic gradually subsides, the global economy begins to recover and the oil demand is also recovering. The US energy information administration predicts that the global oil demand will be higher than the pre epidemic level in 2022. Hu Xue said that after the price adjustment, in terms of logistics and transportation, taking the truck with a load of 50 tons as an example, the fuel consumption of 100 kilometers of heavy load driving is about 40L and 10000 kilometers per month. After the price adjustment, the monthly fuel consumption cost will increase by about 720 yuan. In terms of private cars, taking the model with a fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers as an example, the monthly mileage is 2000 kilometers. After the price adjustment, private car owners will increase the fuel cost by about 27.2 yuan per month. Societe Generale Securities Research Report said that due to the weakening impact of the epidemic and the recovery of travel demand, the international oil price has been in the upward channel since the beginning of 2021. Recently, due to the influence of offshore politics and other factors, it has soared again since December 2021, and the current price is close to $100 / barrel. The domestic refined oil price lags behind the international oil price. In the short term, driven by the international oil price, the domestic refined oil price still has upward space. For the future trend, Hu Xue believes that based on the current crude oil price, the retail price limit of refined oil in the next round is still expected to rise. At present, Russia says it has no plan to use force against Ukraine, the tension between Russia and Ukraine has cooled, and the international oil price has fallen rationally from a high level; However, supported by soaring inflation in the United States and weak OPEC production increase, the market continues to bet on tight global oil supply, and international oil prices may remain high in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the retail price limit of domestic refined oil is expected to impact the "five consecutive rises". However, Iranian negotiators claim that the agreement is in sight or limit the rise of oil price. In Xie's view, the follow-up will also continue to pay attention to the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, OPEC production increase, progress in the negotiation of the Iranian nuclear agreement and other factors. In the context of the continuous rise of international oil prices, it will be a high probability event for the price of domestic refined oil to rise again in the future. It is reported that China's domestic refined oil price will be adjusted every ten working days according to the change trend of international oil price, and the next round of refined oil price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on March 3, 2022. (Xinhua News Agency)
Edit：He Chuanning Responsible editor：Su Suiyue
Source：Securities Daily
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