A powerful new strain is coming! How much will China be affected if many countries announce the closure of their doors?
2021-11-29
A new variant of COVID-19 has been discovered in South Africa. It has been officially named as an official by the WHO. Europe and the United States quickly cut off air links with eight African countries such as South Africa. Israel's response was particularly thorough. It announced that its borders would be closed for 14 days and all foreigners would not be allowed to enter. ▲ on the 27th local time, the new crown and new variety "Omicron" was found in Britain, Germany, Italy, Israel and other countries and regions. At present, many countries around the world have tightened epidemic prevention measures to varying degrees. The picture shows O.R. Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg, South Africa American epidemiologist fudge said that the Omicron strain may have appeared in the United States, but it has not been found. COVID-19 gene sequencing in the United States is generally slow. South Africa, which has been cut off by many countries, is quite aggrieved. Some African officials complain that the selfish policy of western countries to stockpile vaccines has led to the emergence of Omicron strain. Such criticism is at least partly justified. Western countries control most of the resources to fight COVID-19, but they themselves have not checked the spread of the virus, and China has exposed more developing countries to the virus. In addition to China and a few countries becoming oases, too many human communities provide a very favorable environment for virus transmission and mutation. Although most of the mutated new strains are short-lived, it is inevitable that some of them evolve into more aggressive. The prevalence of delta strain proves this, and Omicron strain is forming a new challenge. Some preliminary signs lead to severe speculation: the Omicron strain has more spike protein mutations, diversified variations, and most of them are located in the area of interaction with human cells. Therefore, its transmission is likely to be stronger and can break through the immune barrier, so it may be more dangerous than the delta strain. These have yet to be verified. The opening-up route of the United States and Europe some time ago is facing a test. Major western countries have cut off air links with South Africa and other countries, reflecting that the hearts of those countries are beating drums. The establishment of immune barrier by vaccine alone has actually proved to be a risky route, and even failed to a great extent. It is not clear how much the Omicron strain has penetrated into western society, but it is almost certain that there are not only a few cases found so far. There are few barriers outside the vaccine in the West. If this new strain is really infectious, there is a high risk that a large number of countries will fall next. China's dynamic clearing route was criticized by the West from many angles some time ago, but when the Omicron strain launched a new impact, China was the most capable of stopping their invasion. Dynamic zeroing has promoted China to form a complete system, which has both scientific spirit and political decision-making power, as well as strong social organization and the willingness of the broad masses of the people to cooperate. China is a real iron wall against the spread of the virus in the world today. Between mankind and COVID-19, it is destined to be a marathon war, and it is possible for the virus to shape the human behavior pattern more than climate change. China responds to challenges with a realistic attitude and is not kidnapped by anything a priori. It can do whatever is most effective to protect people's lives, health and safety, and adjust what is most beneficial to maintaining normal economic operation. This country has strength and unity, so we can repel the ferocious impact of waves of viruses. It is understandable that the characteristics of Western society make it difficult to follow the Chinese anti epidemic route. However, western public opinion's attack on China's dynamic zeroing line has become a serious betrayal of the spirit of seeking truth from facts. In particular, the US government hopes to reap geopolitical interests from the fight against the epidemic, or cover up their fight against the epidemic by political means. The Secretary of state Blinken praised the China's overtones of the "threat" of the "secret" virus. However, wave after wave of reality will educate American and Western politicians, and China's anti epidemic achievements will eventually shine in history. Relevant news The research model shows that if China imitates the western "open" strategy, the number of new crown cases may increase by more than 600000 every day Under the threat of the new crown and new mutant "Omicron", Israel announced on the 27th that it would close its borders and prohibit all foreign tourists from entering, becoming the first country in the world to block its borders due to the "Omicron" strain. Israeli Prime Minister Bennett said that the ban may last 14 days. This mutant strain is "very worrying". Israel "is on the verge of entering a state of emergency", and everyone should be ready. Scientists and vaccine manufacturers also quickly identified the "Omicron" variant as a "big problem". Moderna said at a press conference on Friday that the variant posed a "significant potential risk" to the existing new crown vaccine. This is mainly because "Omicron" mutant integrates the mutations of "delta" mutant and "beta" mutant. These mutations are considered to not only increase transmission, but also promote immune escape. The continuous emergence of new mutants also reminds people that the new crown pandemic is far from over. In the face of the continuous variation of the virus, it is a great test for global public health policymakers. 630000 cases may pour in every day Zhang Wenhong, director of the infection department of Huashan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University, believes that "Omicron" will not have a great impact on China at present. China's current rapid response and dynamic clearing strategy can deal with various types of new crown variants. According to a model prediction study published by Professor Zhou Xiaohua, director of the Department of Biostatistics of the school of public health of Peking University, and others in the latest issue of the weekly report of China CDC, if China abandons the "zero tolerance" policy by lifting travel restrictions, China may face more than 630000 new coronal infections every day. Using the data of the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain, France and Israel in August, this study evaluated the potential results if China adopted the same epidemic control strategy as those countries, and revealed the real possibility of large-scale outbreak once the country was opened. "Our results provide a clear warning that China is not ready to accept the 'open' strategy of establishing population immunity hypothesis based on vaccination alone," the researchers wrote. They said that without more effective vaccination or specific drug therapy, China would not be able to lift travel restrictions. The researchers said that in view of the severe reality of the global epidemic, it is almost impossible to eliminate the virus globally in the foreseeable future, and human beings may have to "coexist" with the virus in the short term. For China, the risk of small and medium-sized epidemics caused by imported cases and the corresponding strategies for sustained and timely suppression of domestic infection will continue for some time. "However, this reality does not mean that we can deviate from the 'zero tolerance' strategy of existing effective entry-exit quarantine measures and community non drug intervention (NPI) control measures," the researchers wrote. "As long as there is a threat to the new crown, it will not be zero" Although the conclusion of the study was obtained through mathematical calculation, the researchers said: "the order of magnitude of the conclusion seems reasonable." they also pointed out that the study also has its limitations, such as the impact on different vaccination strategies can not be included in the estimation, and more complex dynamic models are needed to study the evolution of the pandemic and the lifting of travel restrictions The comprehensive effects of vaccination and the intensity of non drug intervention. The researchers also pointed out that how to "be safe and open" is one of the most concerned issues at present. Four key principles include: retaining flexible non drug intervention strategies according to changing epidemiology and hospital resource capacity; Maximize vaccination coverage; Protect industries and vulnerable groups from the side effects of non drug intervention; Use extensive monitoring and stronger community social responsibility to quickly detect and isolate new crowns. Public health experts all over the world believe that as long as COVID-19 continues to exist and is popular around the world, variation is almost inevitable. "As long as the virus is still prevalent, it means that the threat of a new crown will never be zero," said Dr. amesh adalja, a senior scholar at the center for health and safety at Johns Hopkins University. "This virus will continue to produce new variants, most of which will be irrelevant. However, determining the characteristics of the virus and continuously tracking it to determine its importance will still be an important task." Adalja believes that only when the virus is tamed through high-level population immunity and treatment will it lose its ability to threaten hospital resources. "At that time, the public health strategy will be more relaxed, and people will continue to use these medical resources only in high-risk situations," he said. "The good news is that we have surveillance systems around the world to detect these variants very quickly," Maria van kerkhove, who's new crown technical director, said in a statement. Before the release of more laboratory scientific data on the "Omicron" mutant, public health officials believe that there is no new response at present. For ordinary people, they still need to wear masks and avoid crowded places. Those who have not been vaccinated should be vaccinated as soon as possible, and those who have been vaccinated should be vaccinated with enhancers. (Xinhua News Agency)
Edit：Li Ling Responsible editor：Chen Jie
Source：Global Times
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