The economy recovered steadily and its development resilience continued to show
2021-11-16
In October, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 3.5% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month; The total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 4.9% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than that of the previous month; From January to October, China's fixed asset investment increased by 6.1% year-on-year; The two-year average growth rate was 3.8%, the same as that from January to September... The October macroeconomic report card released by the National Bureau of statistics on the 15th showed that industrial growth picked up, market sales increased steadily, and fixed asset investment increased steadily. On the whole, the economic operation is generally stable and continues to recover, and the development resilience continues to show. It is worth noting that the industry pointed out that the current international environment is still complex and severe, there are still many unstable and uncertain factors, there are still phased structural contradictions in domestic development, and more efforts are needed to maintain economic stability and recovery. In the next stage, we will strengthen the cross cycle adjustment of macro policies to ensure the completion of the main objectives and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year. Data show that in October, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 3.5% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month; The average growth rate in the two years was 5.2%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that in the previous month; Growth of 0.39% month on month. In October, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 4.9% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than that of the previous month; The average growth rate in the two years was 4.6%, 0.8 percentage points higher than that in the previous month; Growth of 0.43% month on month. From January to October, China's fixed asset investment increased by 6.1% year-on-year; The two-year average growth rate was 3.8%, the same as that from January to September; The month on month growth in October was 0.15%. "The economic operation is generally stable." Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics and director of the Department of comprehensive statistics of the national economy, introduced that from the cumulative point of view, the main indicators have maintained rapid growth. In the first 10 months, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 10.9% year-on-year, the production index of service industry increased by 15.1%, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 14.9%, and the total import and export of goods increased by 22.2%. From the macro indicators, from January to October, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1% on average, and the consumer price rose by 0.7% year-on-year, all lower than the expected target of annual macro-control. The balance of payments was basically balanced, and foreign exchange reserves remained above US $3.2 trillion for six consecutive months. "Stability" and "progress" are also continuing. In October, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 14.7% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The production index of information transmission, software and information technology services increased by 14.8% year-on-year, significantly faster than the growth rate of the service industry production index. The consumption and investment structure continued to improve. In October, the retail sales of upgraded commodities such as gold, silver, jewelry, cultural and office supplies of units above the designated size increased by 12.6% and 11.5% respectively year-on-year. From January to October, the investment in high-tech industry increased by 17.3% year-on-year. Zheng Houcheng, director of Yingda Securities Research Institute, told the economic information daily that the macro economy showed many bright spots in October. For example, he said that in terms of consumption, the total retail sales of goods in October rose from the previous value. Among them, the retail sales of communication equipment recorded 34.8% year-on-year in the same month, 12 percentage points higher than the previous value, reaching a new high since March 2021. Benefiting from the high export growth rate and the state's support policies for employment, the urban survey unemployment rate continued to operate at a low level, supporting the total retail sales of social consumer goods year-on-year from the perspective of income. In addition, the industrial upgrading trend is good. In October, the investment in computer and office equipment manufacturing increased by 29.9% year-on-year, and the production index of information transmission, software and information technology services increased by 19.8% year-on-year. Looking forward to the economic trend in the next stage, the industry believes that despite some risks and challenges, China's economy will still maintain a stable recovery trend and its development momentum is gradually increasing. First, domestic demand is expected to continue to expand. Fu Linghui said that the resilience of China's consumer market is sufficient, the consumption scale is expanded, the consumption structure is upgraded, and the development trend of consumption mode innovation has not changed. With the economic recovery, the expansion of employment, the increase of residents' income and the gradual improvement of social security, consumption growth still has good support. "Although the epidemic and flood have disturbed the economy, the recovery momentum of manufacturing and consumption continues. The growth rate of real estate funds has also bottomed out and rebounded. It is expected that the rebound momentum of infrastructure growth will continue to be released." Gao Ruidong, managing director and chief macroeconomic economist of Everbright Securities, told the economic information daily that with the gradual implementation of favorable policies, It is expected that the two-year compound economic growth rate will hit the bottom and pick up in the fourth quarter. In addition, Fu Linghui pointed out that the reform of "release, management and service" continued to deepen, the business environment was gradually optimized, the market vitality was enhanced, the market players continued to increase, and the activity remained at a high level. New formats and models are also growing. "On the whole, the overall economic operation is stable and the development quality is expected to be gradually improved." However, Fu Linghui also pointed out that there are still many unstable and uncertain factors in the world, there are still constraints on the recovery of the domestic economy, and the upward pressure on enterprise costs is increasing. In the next stage, we should strengthen the cross cycle adjustment of macro policies to ensure the completion of the main objectives and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year. It is worth mentioning that recently, relevant departments have also released relevant signals. The reporter learned that the Party group meeting of the State Council held on the 12th stressed that at present, while doing a good job in normalized epidemic prevention and control, we should effectively respond to new challenges in economic operation, maintain economic operation within a reasonable range, complete the annual objectives and tasks, and comprehensively study policies and measures for economic and social development next year. On the same day, the Party committee of the people's Bank of China also said at a meeting that it would adhere to a prudent monetary policy, do a good job in cross cycle design, comprehensively consider the policy convergence this year and next, better support the recovery of consumption and investment, curb the rapid rise of prices, and promote high-quality economic and social development. (outlook new era)
Edit：Ming Wu Responsible editor：Haoxuan Qi
Source：jjckb.cn
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