Central bank: liquidity supply and demand will continue to maintain a basic balance in the fourth quarter
2021-10-18
Recently, the central bank held a press conference on financial statistics for the third quarter of 2021. Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the people's Bank of China, responded to the trend of subsequent monetary policies. He said that the people's Bank of China will comprehensively consider the liquidity situation and the needs of financial institutions, flexibly use a variety of monetary policy tools such as medium-term lending facilities and open market operation, timely and appropriately inject liquidity with different maturities, smooth short-term fluctuations, meet the reasonable capital needs of financial institutions and maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity. On the 15th, the central bank has continued to make equal parity for the medium-term lending facility (MLF) due in October. MLF operation of 500 billion yuan and reverse repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan were carried out on the same day. The operating interest rate was 2.95%, unchanged from the previous month and unchanged for 19 consecutive months. Wang Qing, chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that the continued operation of the central bank's equal volume parity shows that the policy supports the moderate easing of medium and long-term liquidity in the current banking system for the second consecutive month, which is conducive to a round of marginal credit easing process in the fourth quarter. There will still be large-scale MLF expiration in the fourth quarter of this year. According to the calculation of Guotai Junan Securities Research Report, the liquidity gap was large in the fourth quarter, at the trillion yuan level every month. On the one hand, the maturity of MLF is huge, which was RMB 500 billion, RMB 100 billion and RMB 950 billion respectively from October to December, totaling RMB 2.45 trillion. On the other hand, the issuance of local bonds was accelerated in the fourth quarter. As of September 30, the issuance of local bonds was RMB 5.62 trillion, with a progress of 71.4% and 91% in the same period of previous years. The liquidity absorption effect is strong. For what operations the central bank will use to make up for the liquidity gap in the fourth quarter, sun Guofeng said that in the fourth quarter, the liquidity supply and demand of the banking system will continue to maintain a basic balance without major fluctuations. For the phased influencing factors such as government bond issuance, tax payment and MLF maturity, the people's Bank of China will comprehensively consider the liquidity situation and the needs of financial institutions, flexibly use a variety of monetary policy tools such as MLF and open market operation, timely and appropriately release liquidity with different maturities, smooth short-term fluctuations and meet the reasonable capital needs of financial institutions, Maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity. At the same time, the implementation of structural monetary policy tools will also play a certain role in increasing the total liquidity. "Recently, the people's Bank of China has also promoted the reform of the operation mode of standing loan facility (SLF) and the orderly realization of the whole process electronization, which is conducive to improving the operation efficiency of SLF, stabilizing market expectations, enhancing the stability of the liquidity of the banking system and maintaining the stable operation of money market interest rates," said Sun Guofeng. For the follow-up overall monetary policy ideas, sun Guofeng pointed out that in the next stage, the prudent monetary policy will be flexible, accurate, reasonable and appropriate, focus on me, take stability as the head, make cross cycle adjustment, and comprehensively consider the policy convergence this year and next. The people's Bank of China will comprehensively use a variety of monetary policy tools to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity and enhance the stability of the growth of total credit. Continue to release the efficiency of the reform of the quoted interest rate (LPR) in the loan market, stabilize the cost of bank liabilities, and promote the steady decline of the comprehensive financing cost of small and micro enterprises. We will give full play to the role of structural monetary policy tools, guide financial institutions to increase support for key areas and weak links such as small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and green development, enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate, give play to the role of exchange rate as a macroeconomic regulator and an automatic stabilizer of balance of payments, guide market players to establish the concept of risk neutrality, and strengthen the macro Prudential Management of cross-border capital flows, Keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. (outlook new era)
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