Pay close attention to switching off and power rationing, highlighting the urgency of upgrading the industrial structure
2021-09-29
Blindly launching the "two high" project affects the power supply, and bitcoin "mining" intensifies the power shortage Switching off and power rationing highlights the urgency of industrial structure upgrading Guan Xiaopu, Xue Peng Based on the complementary industry of "scenery and fishing", Dongtai City, Jiangsu province carries out three-dimensional development and comprehensive utilization of coastal beaches. It is also the largest "scenery and fishing" integrated power station built in China and the largest beach scenery and electricity industry base in the world. It provides nearly 2.8 billion kwh of clean energy and can cover nearly 60% of the local power consumption of the whole society. (source: visual China) Recently, the shortage of power supply in some places has aroused concern. On September 27, in view of the current power supply situation, the State Grid Corporation of China put forward five measures and said that it would avoid switching off and power restriction as much as possible, and resolutely keep the bottom line of people's livelihood, development and security. Energy represented by electricity is an important material basis for social development and is related to the national economy, people's livelihood and national security. Entering the 14th Five Year Plan period, China's development is still in an important period of strategic opportunities, but opportunities and challenges have new development and changes. Based on the new development stage, implementing the new development concept, building a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development are the work that the whole Party and the country must pay close attention to at present and in the future. Fully implementing the decision-making and deployment of the CPC Central Committee and implementing the "three new and one high", especially the complete, accurate and comprehensive implementation of the new development concept and integration into the new development pattern, is the top priority of all work tasks. What is the current situation of power supply in China? Some places blindly launch the "two high" projects, and some places are flooded with bitcoin "mining". Is it related to switching off and limiting power? What are the difficulties in carbon neutralization of carbon peak and how to overcome them? The reporter interviewed Guo Yungao, Secretary General of waste power generation special committee of China Environmental Protection Federation and Secretary General of energy storage equipment technical special committee of China Electric Power Technology Market Association. Thermal power generation is the main source of power supply in China, and coal is the main raw material of thermal power Reporter: what are the main sources of power supply in China? How about their respective power generation? Guo Yungao: according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics from January to August this year, the proportion of various energy power generation in China is: thermal power 71.9%, hydropower 14.1%, wind power 6.8%, nuclear power 5% and solar power 2.2%. Thermal power generation is the main source, and coal is the main raw material of thermal power. According to statistics, by the end of 2020, China's total installed power capacity has reached 2.2 billion kw, including 1.25 billion kw of thermal power units. In 2020, the national power generation will be 7.63 trillion kwh. If all these power is supplied by thermal power units, the converted utilization hours will be about 6104 hours, accounting for only 69.68% of the 8760 hours in the whole year. In other words, assuming that the national power generation is supplied by thermal power units, the average load rate is less than 70%. Therefore, from this point of view, the current power cut-off is certainly not the reason for the installed capacity of power generation. According to the data released by China Electricity Council, from January to August this year, China's coal-fired power generation utilization hours were 3089 hours, and the coal-fired generator set was far from reaching the designed economic operation hours of 5500 hours. On the one hand, the power generation capacity is insufficient, and on the other hand, the power users are seriously short of power. This problem is worth discussing. It is understood that China's standard coal price has jumped from 1200 yuan / ton to the current 2000 yuan / ton, resulting in serious losses for large-scale coal-fired power plants, which are the main force of power production. In the face of high coal prices, large-scale coal-fired power plants naturally lose their enthusiasm to "seek coal and protect electricity". Although renewable energy such as hydropower, wind power and photovoltaic has developed rapidly, it is still difficult to shoulder the heavy responsibility for the time being. Last year, the installed capacity of hydropower, wind power and photovoltaic power generation was 370 million KW, 282 million KW and 254 million KW respectively, but the power generation was 1.36 trillion kwh, 0.47 trillion kWh and 0.26 trillion kwh respectively, accounting for 17.77%, 6.12% and 3.42% respectively. It can be seen that although the installed capacity of renewable energy accounts for more than 40%, the power generation only accounts for 27.3% of the total power generation. Especially for wind power and photovoltaic power generation, the installed capacity accounts for nearly 25%, but the power generation accounts for less than 10%. The blind launch of "two high" projects in some areas has affected the power supply to a certain extent, and the huge energy consumption of "mining" projects has exacerbated the local power shortage Reporter: Recently, some places have launched "two high" projects against the wind. What does this have to do with switching off and limiting power? Some regions have previously seen the phenomenon of "mining" of virtual currencies such as bitcoin. Is there a connection between "mining" and "power rationing"? Guo Yungao: in terms of curbing the blind development of "two high" projects, the national development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, has carried out special inspection. As of August this year, it has urged all localities to reduce more than 350 "two high" projects to be launched, reduce the new energy demand of 270 million tons of standard coal, and achieved preliminary results. However, compared with the requirements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, there are still gaps in the determination and effectiveness of many places, and some prominent problems still need to be solved. The blind launch of the "two high" projects in some areas has affected the power supply to a certain extent and promoted the current situation of switching off and power restriction, but this is not the main reason for switching off and power restriction, because some non operating high energy consuming projects have not yet played an impact on energy consumption. The "mining" activity of virtual currency refers to the process of calculating and producing virtual currency through a special "mining machine". Virtual currency "mining" is a high energy consuming project with large energy consumption and carbon emissions and low contribution to the national economy. According to the research of alternative finance research center of Cambridge University, as of May 10, 2021, the annual power consumption of global bitcoin "mining" is about 149.37 billion kwh, which has exceeded the annual power consumption of Malaysia, Ukraine, Sweden and other countries, and is close to Vietnam, which ranks 25th in power consumption. In January this year, the Iranian government accused bitcoin of "mining" behavior, which led to the interruption of power in the country. Moreover, the "mining" project has limited driving effect on industrial development and scientific and technological progress. In addition, the risks derived from the production and trading of virtual currency are becoming more and more prominent. Its blind and disorderly development has an adverse impact on high-quality economic and social development, energy conservation and emission reduction. Foreign studies show that more than 65% of bitcoin miners come from China, followed by the United States and Russia, accounting for about 7% each. In China, "mining" activities are mostly concentrated in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou and other regions, mainly because these places are full of electricity and cheap electricity prices. However, the huge energy consumption of the "mining" project intensifies the local power shortage and expands the scope of power restriction, which runs counter to the goal of carbon peak, carbon neutralization and high-quality development in China, and should be paid attention to. Since this year, China's virtual currency regulatory policy has been comprehensively upgraded, with the elimination of "mining" activities and the prohibition of relevant business activities. On September 24, the national development and Reform Commission and other departments issued a notice announcing that the virtual currency "mining" activity will be officially listed as an eliminated industry. At the same time, the people's Bank of China and other departments have made it clear that virtual currency does not have the same legal status as legal currency, and relevant business activities belong to illegal financial activities. The services provided by overseas virtual currency exchanges to domestic residents through the Internet are also classified as illegal financial activities. Stable economic growth is inseparable from energy consumption, and achieving the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization requires energy conservation and carbon reduction. Such a dilemma is a pain in development Reporter: what are the difficulties in China's "double carbon" work? Guo Yungao: striving to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutralization by 2060 is a major strategic decision made by the Party Central Committee based on the responsibility of promoting the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind and the internal requirements of sustainable development. Internationally, China's commitment to achieve the time from carbon peak to carbon neutralization is far shorter than that of developed countries, which means that we need to make arduous efforts to achieve this goal. As the world's largest developing country, China should not only achieve high-quality development, but also significantly reduce carbon, which is the difficulty of China's "double carbon" work. Stable economic growth is inseparable from energy consumption, and achieving the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization requires energy conservation and carbon reduction. Such a dilemma is the pain in development. For example, China's road to reaching the carbon peak in 2030 is like a car in the hope of reaching the peak. It needs to close the throttle and climb to the top. If it's not handled well, it will shut down and slip away, and if it doesn't advance, it will retreat. It is very difficult to coordinate socio-economic development, economic structure transformation and low-carbon energy transformation. This difficulty can be seen from China's energy consumption structure. In 2020, China's total energy consumption is about 4.98 billion tons of standard coal, and fossil energy accounts for more than 80%. With such huge fossil energy consumption, any "leap forward" type of "track change" will lead to the supply of energy for social production and life. In addition, there is still a significant gap between China's energy output rate and developed countries. Since the 18th CPC National Congress, China's energy consumption per unit of GDP has decreased by 24.4%, accounting for about half of the world's energy savings in the same period. However, compared with other countries, the energy input cost of China's economic growth is still significantly high. In 2018, China's energy output rate was 74% of the world average, only 48% of the average level of developed countries. At the same time, there is a large gap in energy output rate between regions in China, with a difference of more than 8 times between the most developed provinces and the least developed provinces. Considering the continuous progress of energy efficiency in developed countries, China must continue to significantly improve the energy output rate in order to narrow the gap with developed countries and basically achieve the development goal of socialist modernization by 2035. Reporter: the "power cut-off" further highlights the urgency of accelerating the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure and energy structure. What are the deficiencies and problems in implementing the new development concept and realizing green and low-carbon transformation in some places? Guo Yungao: the new development concept is a systematic theoretical system. At present, the top priority of all tasks is to fully implement the decision-making and deployment of the CPC Central Committee and implement the "three new and one high", especially the complete, accurate and comprehensive implementation of the new development concept and integration into the new development pattern. As an industry organization serving energy and environment enterprises, we often hear some "words from the heart" of enterprises. They certainly support and support the new development concept of green and low-carbon development, but they can't afford the "sudden brake" and "sudden turning of the rudder" promotion methods that do not respect the industry reality and the operation law of enterprises. The problems of insufficient understanding and implementation of the new development concept in individual regions should be corrected and solved as soon as possible. Governments at all levels should not simply regard green and low-carbon circular development as a task and pressure and transmit it to enterprises at all levels. They should help everyone understand the benefits and opportunities brought by the new development concept and guide everyone to consciously practice it. In some places, the problems or mistakes that may occur in the process of enterprises, insufficient research and early warning, insufficient guidance and tolerance, and the phenomena of sports promotion, sports law enforcement and sports shutdown occur from time to time. The results are counterproductive and should be taken as a warning. The development of green and low-carbon cycle is by no means a simple pollutant discharge index, carbon control index and energy consumption standard, but requires enterprise understanding, public support, step-by-step and technical support. Governments at all levels should, in accordance with the requirements of the central government for "release, management and service", do a good job as disseminators, service providers and practitioners of new development concepts with the service consciousness of "shopkeeper", rather than onlookers. In practice, I hope
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