2025-01-25
According United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)'s Global Trade Update, global trade is expected to reach an all-time high of 33 trillion dollars in 2024. The projected figure for this year marks a 1 trillion dollars increase over 2023, driven by robust 3.3% annual growth, indicating that global trade has shown strong resilience in the face of many challenges.
The report points out that a significant contributor to this growth was trade in services, which surged by 7%, accounting for half of the total expansion. Goods trade, while growing at about 2%, has remained below its 2022 peak.
The report shows that developing countries experienced weaker trade performance in 2024. Their imports fell by 1% year-on-year in the third quarter (Q3), and South-South trade growth, which shrunk by 1%, was also negative. In contrast, this trend inverted in Q3 2024, with trade growth largely driven by positive trade dynamics in developed economies, whose imports grew by 3% and exports by 2%, becoming the backbone of trade growth in the quarter.
Despite this, developing economies still have bright spots and opportunities in high-growth areas. Sectors like information and communications technologies (ICT) and apparel recorded strong growth, surging 13% and 14% over Q3. This demonstrates the diversified development trend of developing economies and their potential to enter high-value-added industries.
Although industries such as ICT and apparel in developing economies have shown vigorous growth momentum, traditional industries are under downward pressure with energy trade declining 2% in Q3 and an overall 7% over the year. Metals trade also contracted 3%, both quarterly and annually, while the automotive sector posted a 3% drop in the quarter, despite an anticipated 4% annual growth.
The report emphasizes that for developing economies, 2025 is a key node to enhance competitiveness through strategic transformation. A stable economic environment provides strong support for the optimization of trade structure, and how these economies capitalize on this opportunity will determine the future trajectory of global trade patterns. At the same time, the relatively stable growth trend of the global economy and the easing of inflationary pressures have laid a solid foundation for further strengthening of trade resilience in 2025.
However, the report also warns that the risk of expanding trade frictions and continued geopolitical challenges brings uncertainty to the outlook for 2025.
UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan emphasized that "trade remains a cornerstone of sustainable development" and the importance of strategic policy action in developing economies to enhance trade diversification and invest in high-value sectors to mitigate risks and meet challenges. She called on countries to take coordinated measures to strengthen their links to global markets and reduce dependence on a single market to better cope with the increasingly complex international situation.
特别声明:本站转载或引用之图文若侵犯了您的合法权益,请 与本站联系,本站将及时更正、删除。版权问题及网站合作, 请通过瞭望新时代邮箱联系:lwxsd@liaowanghn.com