The expectation of the real estate market is gradually improving
2024-10-25
For some time now, departments such as the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the People's Bank of China, and the State Administration for Financial Regulation have actively implemented the spirit of the Central Political Bureau meeting, guided various regions to take active actions, grasped the implementation of existing policies and the introduction of incremental policies, played a "combination punch", and promoted the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize. According to statistical data, in the first three quarters, policies are driving the real estate industry towards stabilizing and stopping its decline. Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced that in the first three quarters, the sales area of newly-built commercial housing in China was 702.84 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 17.1%. The decline rate narrowed by 1.9 and 0.9 percentage points respectively compared to the first half of the year and the first eight months, and has been narrowing for four consecutive months until September. The sales revenue of newly-built commercial housing reached 6888 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.7%. The decline rate narrowed by 2.3 and 0.9 percentage points respectively compared to the first half of the year and the first eight months, and has been narrowing for five consecutive months until September. In the first nine months, real estate development investment decreased by 10.1% year-on-year, with a slightly narrower decline compared to the first eight months. In the first nine months, the year-on-year decline in funds received by real estate development enterprises this year has also narrowed, narrowing by 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous half of the year, and has been narrowing for six consecutive months. The real estate market in our country has undergone about three years of adjustment. On September 26th, the Central Politburo meeting proposed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market by stopping its decline. Subsequently, the four first tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen adjusted and optimized their regulatory policies, and relevant departments also introduced a series of incremental policy measures. Confidence from all parties continues to increase, and expectations for the real estate market are gradually improving. Minister of Housing and Urban Rural Development Ni Hong introduced that there are four "combination punches" to promote the market to stop falling and stabilize, including four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases. Four cancellations, namely cancellation of purchase restrictions, cancellation of sales restrictions, cancellation of price limits, cancellation of standards for ordinary and non ordinary residential properties. Four reductions, namely reducing the housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points; Reduce the down payment ratio for housing loans and unify the minimum down payment ratio for first and second home loans to 15%; Reduce the interest rate of existing loans; Reduce the tax and fee burden of "selling old and buying new" for the purchase of housing. These policies will reduce the cost of housing for residents, alleviate the pressure of loan repayment, and support residents' rigid and improved housing needs. Two additions, namely the implementation of 1 million sets of urban village renovation and renovation of dilapidated houses through monetary resettlement and other means; By the end of the year, increase the credit scale of "whitelist" projects to 4 trillion yuan. Sheng Laiyun stated that with the launch and implementation of a package of real estate policies, all parties hold an optimistic attitude towards the future real estate market. The National Bureau of Statistics recently conducted a monthly questionnaire survey on real estate development enterprises and intermediary agencies in 70 large and medium-sized cities. The results showed that the proportion of new home workers who expressed optimism in September increased by 10 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the proportion of second-hand home workers increased by 6.5 percentage points. This indicates that the current confidence boost effect is very significant. The positive changes in the real estate market situation during the National Day Golden Week and the following 10 days also reflect the optimistic attitude of all parties towards the future trend of the real estate market. The data shows that there has been a significant improvement in the visitor volume and transaction volume of some real estate projects. According to incomplete statistics from market institutions, during the National Day Golden Week, the transaction area of new houses increased by 102%, and the transaction area of second-hand houses increased by 205%. The stabilization trend continued after the National Day holiday. Especially in first tier cities, the entire line has stabilized since October. On October 13th, the online signing volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai reached 1334 units, setting a new daily high since September last year; In the first week after the National Day holiday, the transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in Beijing Lianjia increased by 58.4% compared to the previous week, and increased by 135.9% compared to the normal level before the holiday. The weekly transaction volume reached the highest level this year. As of October 13th, the average daily signing volume of second-hand houses in Shenzhen since October is the highest this year and also the highest in the past four years. Li Yujia, Chief Researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, noticed that the market in non hotspot areas has also rebounded. From September 30th to October 6th, Guizhou Province signed contracts for the construction of 209500 square meters of new commercial housing, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, with a signing amount of 1.123 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%. Li Yujia stated that the stability of the commodity housing market has been evident in recent times. In addition to the comprehensive effects of actively relieving policies, such as reducing costs, lowering thresholds, and raising expectations, multiple departments and provinces have worked together, coupled with the intensive launch of the "Hundred Cities, Thousand Enterprises Commodity Housing Promotion Campaign" in October, which has boosted market confidence. Ni Hong stated that under the influence of a series of policies, China's real estate market has begun to bottom out after three years of adjustment. We believe that the data for October will be a positive and optimistic result, "Ni Hong said." We need to work together to strike a good combination of policies, implement them vigorously, and fully demonstrate the effects of the policies, so that the people can enjoy the policy dividends. (New Society)
Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan
Source:Economic Daily
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