Anchoring a good start to the new year, local measures to stabilize growth are ready to go

2022-01-25

Following the announcement of China's economic annual report in 2021, local governments have successively handed over the annual economic "report card". The reporter of the economic information daily learned that in the first year of the 14th five year plan, the economy of many places recovered steadily and improved steadily, showing the characteristics of strong motivation, stable situation and sufficient toughness. At the same time, in the face of "triple pressure", local governments have stepped up planning for a new round of practical measures to stabilize growth, and taken a series of specific measures to promote the economy to "open the door and stabilize" in 2022. Focusing on stabilizing industrial economic growth, stimulating consumption potential, expanding effective investment, relieving the burden and stimulating the vitality of market players, a package of specific measures will be intensively implemented. According to the data released by local statistical bureaus and local two sessions, up to now, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hainan, Anhui, Inner Mongolia, Fujian, Hubei, Shanghai, Beijing, Chongqing, Guangdong, Sichuan, Shaanxi and other places have released economic transcripts in 2021. Steady economic recovery and steady improvement have become common features. In the first year of the 14th five year plan, the economic aggregate of many provinces reached a new level. So far, there are 12 provinces and cities with GDP exceeding 3 trillion yuan, including Guangdong, Shanghai, Beijing, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong, Hunan, Anhui, Hubei, Sichuan and Henan. Among them, Guangdong's GDP exceeded 12 trillion yuan for the first time, ranking first in China for 33 consecutive years. In addition, Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang exceeded 11 trillion yuan, 8 trillion yuan and 7 trillion yuan respectively, and Hubei, Sichuan and Henan exceeded 5 trillion yuan. In terms of economic growth, the GDP growth of 11 provinces and cities including Beijing, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, Chongqing, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangxi, Hainan, Sichuan and Shanxi in 2021 exceeded the national growth rate (8.1%). Among them, Hubei's GDP grew by 12.9%, 4.8 percentage points faster than that of the whole country, realizing a strong recovery. "On the whole, the economic operation of all localities has maintained a stable recovery trend, and the pace of high-quality economic development has accelerated. In 2021, all localities generally completed the economic growth target set at the beginning of the year. While the total economy has achieved growth, all localities continue to develop and expand new momentum." Gao Ruidong, managing director and chief macroeconomist of Everbright Securities, told the reporter of economic information daily. "Progress in stability" and "quality improvement in stability" have also become key words for local governments to interpret economic data. For example, Fujian's import and export performance was brilliant. The total import and export volume of Customs goods in the whole year was 1844.958 billion yuan, an increase of 30.9% over the previous year and 9.5 percentage points higher than that of the whole country. Anhui's emerging kinetic energy increased strongly, and the output value of strategic emerging industries increased by 28.8%, 13.4 percentage points higher than that of industries above designated size. The rapid development of Beijing's digital economy has injected new impetus. The annual added value of the digital economy reached 1625.19 billion yuan, an increase of 13.1% over the previous year, accounting for 40.4% of the city's regional GDP. At the time of intensive disclosure of local economic annual reports, many places are also planning and deploying the priorities of economic work in 2022, and come up with a series of specific measures to promote the "opening and stability" of the economy in the new year. Recently, the successive local two sessions have released important signals. At present, 29 provinces and cities have announced their economic growth targets for 2022, which are basically higher than their two-year average growth rate in 2021. Among them, nearly 70% of the provinces and cities have an expected GDP growth target of 6% or more in 2022. Focusing on steady growth, stabilizing industrial economic growth, stimulating consumption potential, expanding effective investment, relieving difficulties and reducing burdens, and stimulating the vitality of market players have become an important starting point. Among them, in terms of investment, both new and old infrastructure are available, and the transformation of old cities and affordable housing are emphasized; In terms of consumption, green consumption, cultural and tourism consumption and rural consumption have become important driving points. Steady growth also requires the combination of long and short, and a good combination of boxing. Anchor to achieve the "stable opening of the door" in the new year, and all localities will step up the deployment of specific work in the first quarter. On January 20, the Shaanxi provincial government issued the opinions on steady economic growth in the first quarter of 2022, which put forward 10 specific policies and measures, including fully implementing the policy of benefiting enterprises and relieving poverty, tapping potential and increasing efficiency, revitalizing the industrial economy, going all out to expand effective investment and taking multiple measures to promote the rapid recovery of consumption. In addition, Hubei Province held a work promotion meeting to strive for a "good start" in the first quarter, emphasizing the realization of "good start", "stable opening" and "good opening", and made detailed arrangements around paying close attention to industry, projects, investment attraction, consumption and export. Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Securities, told the reporter of the economic information daily that with the advance of a number of policies, achieving a "good start" will help release the signal of policy easing, boost the production and operation expectations of enterprises and reshape market confidence. With the accumulation of local efforts to step up the planning of a new round of steady growth measures, the reserve projects are expected to accelerate the commencement and drive the early release of demand, so as to play the role of "early introduction, early implementation and early effect". Looking forward to the whole year of 2022, the industry believes that the key to steady growth lies in expanding domestic demand. On the one hand, we should expand effective investment, give play to the supporting role of infrastructure investment, and carry out infrastructure investment moderately ahead of schedule. On the other hand, we should promote the recovery of consumption and enhance the momentum of consumption growth. Fan Ruoying, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, told the reporter of the economic information daily that in terms of investment, greater efforts should be made to mobilize the enthusiasm of private investment, guide financial institutions to increase credit support for private enterprises and reduce enterprise financing costs. We will give better play to the role of special debt funds in driving social funds. Arrange relevant projects representing the future economic development direction in advance. In terms of consumption, first, accelerate the enabling of digital technology to offline consumption and further stimulate the growth of online consumption; Second, promote the recovery and growth of service consumption; Third, accelerate the upgrading of product supply structure to better meet consumer demand. According to Gao Ruidong's analysis, many places raised the growth target of fixed asset investment in 2022 and proposed to "start the battle of effective investment", indicating that stabilizing investment has become the main focus of stabilizing the economy. On the one hand, active fiscal policies have improved efficiency and promoted the formation of physical workload of budgetary funds and special debt funds in the first quarter as soon as possible; On the other hand, we should also leverage more social investment, stimulate the vitality of private investment and form a market-oriented endogenous growth mechanism of investment. In addition, at the local two sessions, many places have made arrangements on green and low-carbon development, digital transformation, strengthening and supplementing the industrial chain, so as to speed up high-quality economic development and industrial upgrading. Zhang Jun said that in 2022, local governments will promote the deep integration of Internet, big data and artificial intelligence, and build a number of strategic emerging industries with their own characteristics, complementary advantages and reasonable structure. Among them, the layout of high-end manufacturing investment can not only promote the upgrading of the manufacturing industry itself, but also promote the upgrading and transformation of consumption and infrastructure. In addition, the construction of green industry under "carbon neutralization" will become another important starting point. All localities will increase the construction of new energy sources such as upstream solar power generation and wind power, and increase investment in downstream new energy vehicles, charging piles and other related industries. (outlook new era)

Edit:Ming Wu    Responsible editor:Haoxuan Qi

Source:jjckb.cn

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